The NCAA Baseball Super Regionals are onto Day 2. We have 4 picks for Saturday’s late action
The 2022 NCAA Baseball Regionals started with a bang on Friday. Texas rallied from down 7-2 to within a run, until ECU blew things open after a comedy of errors from the Longhorn outfielders. Oklahoma handled #4 Virginia Tech, holding off a late charge for a 5-4 victory. Notre Dame, the worst home run-hitting team in the ACC, smashed four homers off projected first round pick, Blake Tidwell. The Irish jumped to an 8-2 lead and held on for an 8-6 victory against the best team in America.
Capping the day was the Louisville vs Texas A&M game. Louisville took an early lead and committed to getting the win, playing six pitchers throughout the game in an effort to hold-off Texas A&M, but a two-out walk-off gave the Aggies a Game 1 win, just after midnight CST.
Overall, the day was a wash for our picks (2-2 on the day). What we should take from it is, volatility in baseball in a single game is very prevalent. Every outright underdog won on Friday (3-0). The Louisville vs Texas A&M game was an even spread. For goodness sakes, the odds of Notre Dame hitting four bombs against anyone (much less, the second-best collegiate pitcher in baseball) had to be less than 3%. Regardless, it was an unexpected series of results Friday.
Saturday features four interesting matchups later in the day, with a pair of the games not starting until very late (9pm CST & 9:30 pm CST). Be sure to check out DraftKings Sportsbook for any promos on deck this weekend.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
#1 Tennessee -2.5 (-105) vs Notre Dame
Tennessee has lost back-to-back games just once all season (versus Kentucky). Following a very sluggish offensive start and an absolutely disastrous start from their ace, Tennessee nearly clawed their way to a late victory Friday. Had you gone with Notre Dame to win, you’d have cashed a nice +240. We recommended Tennessee in the opener, but in the unsettling terrain of college baseball, anything can happen.
We like Tennessee to win in a big way in Game 2. Notre Dame went with an interesting pitching strategy in Game 1, but these Tennessee bats came to life late in Game 1, and we fully expect them to explode in Game 2. If Tennessee gets out to a decent lead in Game 2, expect Notre Dame to burn through some of their less effective pitchers, saving their best arms for Game 3. I love the Vols -2.5 runs here and expect a 10-2 drubbing in Game 2.
#11 Southern Miss vs Ole Miss (ML +105)
I have to open this one with a disclaimer. I graduated from Ole Miss. Though I rarely choose them in picks, I feel like I’m not as biased as one may expect, given the connection.
Now, I watched a good bit of Southern Miss’ regional. They opened the Regional with an impressive shutout over Army. However, they failed to score more than 8 runs in any single game in their regional. They also split their two games vs Ole Miss during the season. They’re a great team, but one who limped through the Regionals at home, edging LSU by a run in the final game.
Ole Miss was the #1 team in the country for a bit. Eventually, they fell so far outside the Top 25, they were the last team to make the NCAA Tournament. After nabbing a regional 3 seed, Ole Miss upset Arizona in the opener (7-4), beat #6 National seed Miami (2-1) in the second game, and then crushed Arizona (22-6) in the final game. The biggest change for Ole Miss of late has been the bullpen. Compared to mid season, the Bullpen looks like a strength of this team now.
We like Ole Miss here for both the value and their current form. Ole Miss has a history of choking in the Super Regionals, but their team appears to be on fire at the moment, and why would we deviate from that?
#14 Auburn (ML +145) vs #3 Oregon State
Auburn might have the hottest bats right now amongst all the teams remaining (sorry, Arkansas). Auburn scored 19, 21, and 11 in their three-game sweep in their Regional. Now, the pitching has their fair share of issues, but the hot bats could really shake things up when they face Oregon State on Saturday. The Tigers had two rough stretches, but the bats have come alive since the start of the Tournament.
Oregon State was on an absolute tear until losing their final two series’ of the season (UCLA & Arizona). A deep run in the Pac 12 tournament cemented them as the national #3 seed, but their regional had its fair share of hiccups. After beating the regional 4 seed in 10 innings in the opener, Oregon State was snuffed-out vs Vanderbilt, before ultimately edging the Commodores in the final game. This team is outstanding, but their play of late is concerning.
After witnessing madness Friday, we are leaning towards the value here in Game 1. Auburn has been offensively explosive, and we simply can’t, in good faith, take Oregon State in this one.
UCONN vs #2 Stanford -1.5 (-110)
UCONN had an odd trip to get here. The Huskies were the #3 seed in the Maryland Regional, despite a stellar record (49-14). UCONN knocked-off Wake Forest in the opening game (8-7) and went on to win two of three against #15 Maryland. Their offense is solid, but the other side has a plethora of concerns, coming into a series against the Stanford Cardinal. UCONN can brawl with the best of them, but it’s Stanford’s pitchers who really concern teams.
Stanford appeared to struggle in their Regional, but Texas State easily should’ve been a Regional host. Texas State beat Stanford in Game 2, but the Cardinal rallied in the final game to score four runs in the bottom of the ninth to advance. We should be concerned by the lack of offense in the Regional on paper, but Texas State’s pitchers were incredible, to be fair.
The matchup against UCONN is the classic “pitching vs offense” matchup. The caveat is, Stanford also has a wide array of offensive talent. This is the lone favorite we like Saturday.