Everybody had some preconceived ideas of which teams would be the ones to beat in the NFL this season but it has only taken one matchday for a number of those predictions to founder on the rocks somewhat.
With a whole glut of ‘fancied’ teams such as the Bills, Patriots, Titans, Colts, Ravens, Browns and Packers all on the wrong end of losing results, in some cases by a pretty hefty margin, some of the less fancied teams such as the Texans, Eagles, Panthers, Cardinals, Broncos and Raiders all managed to land wins.
All this has meant that in a number of betting markets at DraftKings Sportsbook, we have seen some major changes in odds, with some selections coming right in, with others drifting on the back of some poor performances.
So let’s take a look at what some of the most productive and popular bets were this week, with data provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Which Bets Made Punters The Most Money In Week One Of The NFL?
We do love a good success story and there’s no better place to start than with the bets that saw most punters pick up some bucks at the hands of the bookmakers.
The most successful bet in terms of total returns paid out to punters was backing Ty’Son Williams to be the first touchdown scorer in Monday Night Football’s clash between the Ravens and Raiders at odds of +1100
Other bets that paid out well included three more First TD scorer bets on Van Jefferson (+4000), DeAndre Hopkins (+900) and Chris Godwin (also +900).
Lastly, bets on Tom Brady to throw over 2.5 touchdowns against the Cowboys also proved a lucrative market for punters, even at relatively short odds of +135.
Most Popular Games To Bet On And Spread & Moneyline Bets
In terms of what was the most popular game to bet on, Monday Night Football’s clash between the Ravens and Raiders attracted the most betting, with the Buccaneers v Cowboys opener on Thursday the second most popular.
Then followed the Rams v Bears on Sunday evening, before the Browns and Chiefs and lastly the Packers at the Saints.
Moneyline bettors had a positive weekend with the four most popular moneyline bets on the San Francisco 49ers (-475), Los Angeles Rams (-435), Las Vegas Raiders (+155) and Philadelphia Eagles (+160) all coming good. However, those that backed the fifth most popular option, the Green Bay Packers at -195 would not be too pleased.
There were better news for the bookmakers on the Spread Bets where the top two markets on Green Bay and Baltimore both were losers for punters that backed them, as was the fourth most popular spread bet on the Vikings.
However, spread bets on the Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams all proved to be wise moves for punters.
Big Movers In The MVP Markets Too
Some individual performances by players also had a marked effect on their odds of being the NFL MVP at the end of the season. The biggest movers were Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, who saw his odds come in from +6500 prior to Week 1, to +3500 after it.
The Saints new incumbent quarterback Jameis Winston also saw his odds slashed after a strong showing against the Packers, opening the weekend at +4000, his odds are now down to +2500.
Matt Stafford’s excellent showing for the Rams also saw his odds slashed from +1800 to just +800, while Kyler Murray’s rampage against the Titans saw the Cardinals QB’s odds come in from +1600 to +1000.
However, two favorites for the award saw their odds increase after a less than stellar start to the season with Aaron Rodgers drifting from +1000 to +1600 on the back of that Packers mauling against the Saints, while Bills quarterback Josh Allen saw his odds drift slightly from +1200 to +1400 after the Bills loss to the Steelers.
Looking Ahead To Week Two – Early Betting Patterns & Trends
If we look ahead to this weekend’s forthcoming games we can see some interesting patterns in betting across the Spread, Total Points and Moneyline Markets.
- 67% of bets and 68% of the handle has gone on Washington (-3) to beat New York
- 94% of the handle and 93% of bets have gone on the Bills (-3) to beat Miami.
- 79% of the bets made have backed the Bengals at +3 to beat the Bears.
- 77% of the bets made have picked the Rams (-4) to beat the Colts.
- 80% of bets made on the Saints v Panthers game have the Saints (-3.5) to win.
- 77% of bets on the Over/Under 45 pts in the Bengals v Bears game is on the Over market.
- 71% have backed Over 48 pts in the Texans v Browns game.
- 78% have backed Over 47.5 pts in the Rams v Colts game.
- 82% have gone for the Under 49 pts market in the Raiders v Steelers game.
- 80% of bets have been made on the Over 50pts market for the 49ers v Eagles game.
- An incredible 97% of bets have gone on the Over 55 pts game for the Cowboys v Chargers.
- 86% of bets have been made on the over 54 pts mark for the Titans against Seahawks.
- 87% of bets are on the over 55.5pts market for the Chiefs v Ravens clash.
- 85% of bets on the moneyline have gone on the Bills to beat the Dolphins (-170)
- 87% of bets are backing the Rams to beat the Colts (-220)
- 79% of moneyline bets back the Broncos to beat the Jags (-275) and the Browns to beat the Texans (-720)
- The Bucs are the most heavily backed Moneyline team with 91% of bets made on them to beat the Falcons (-720)
- They are slightly ahead of the Patriots who have been backed by 90% of bets at -255 to beat the Jets.
Of course, over the next few days, the amount of bets will change these figures, but it does give an early indication of where the smart money is going in the NFL as we head towards the second matchday.
*All figures and data shown were correct as of Tuesday 15th September with DraftKings Sportsbook.