NFL

Sunday Shockers – Our Week 13 Longer Odds NFL Sunday Picks

I almost went for a Frank Sinatra last week and took a ‘New York, New York’ double, but in the end I was persuaded against the Giants and went for the Colts instead, and that was a bad call.

Had I stuck with Ole Blue Eyes, I’d have landed two out of two last week, instead I hit one out of the two tips which means that on the season I am now 10/18, which is better than 0.500. So at the moment, I am around the San Francisco 49ers mark.

Ideally, I’d prefer to be there at the top of things like the Cardinals, but I am aiming to improve that record with my selections this week!

With four teams on a bye over the next two weeks, this does reduce our selections somewhat for Sunday, but I still feel that there are some games that have the potential for an upset, although how much of an upset depends very much on the bookmakers and how they price up the games.

To that end, we are going to head over this week to PlaySugarHouse Sportsbook and Casino this week for the odds on the games.

Let’s take a closer look at Week 13’s games.

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NFL Week 13 FixturesNFL Conference Championship DFS

Thursday Night Football

  • Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday Fixtures

  • Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
  • Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
  • New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
  • Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets
  • Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears
  • Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals
  • Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Rams
  • Washington Football Team @ Las Vegas Raiders
  • Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
  • San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
  • Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

Monday Night Football

  • New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Bye Week – Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Tennessee Titans

Sunday’s game are shown in bold, with Thursday and Monday night games in italics.

Sunday Shocker Picks For Week Thirteen

There are some big divisional games this week with perhaps the games between the Ravens and the Steelers, the 49ers and the Seahawks and the late game on Sunday between the Chiefs and Broncos having the most implications for teams involved in the race for the playoffs.

You would expect the Buccaneers, Colts and Vikings to get the job done against the Falcons, Texans and Lions respectively.

However, these divisional games may be key, but there are other games that have significant implications for the post season for the teams involved and given how tight this season is across both divisions, almost every game taking place this week has something on the line.

And looking at this set of games, I am drawn to a couple where I think there is a realistic chance of an upset victory, or at least one that defies the odds set by PlaySugarHouse for the game.

However, I must add a caveat here and say that this is probably the least confident I have been heading into a game week in terms of finding an upset. I’d have taken the Pats to beat the Bills if the game wasn’t being played on Monday, let’s just put it that way!

That said, I still have come through with two potential longer odds wins.

Which games are they? Let’s take a closer look and find out.

Sunday Shocker 1 – Los Angeles Chargers to beat the Cincinnati Bengals

Of the two games this week I think this one has the best chance of being an upset. I admit, the Bengals head into this game in great shape. Joe Burrow looks the real deal and Ja’Mar Chase, along with Mac Jones, Micah Parsons and Jaylen Waddle, is having a fantastic rookie season and should be in the talk for Rookie of the Year.

The Bengals also stacked up 40+ points against the Steelers last week in what was a statement win. However, the one caveat I have here is that the Bengals have done this before, and then they have fallen off a cliff in their next performance, or in a game you would expect them to win.

That brings me nicely onto the Chargers who I think are one of the most talented rosters of players in the NFL right now. At times, they have been very dangerous on offense with Justin Herbert in particular in superb form and ably supported by Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen.

Both these teams blow hot and cold and at various times this season, I have thought both will go on to take control of their division, but then they have hit the skids and started losing games that you would expect them to win.

So with that my thinking here, I am backing the Chargers to upset the odds here and land the win. The Chargers are +3 in the handicap and -108 at that value and they are also +152 on the moneyline to land the win.

And if you want an Over/Under bet, then I’d go for a high-scoring game with Over 50.5 points at -108 being my pick.

Sunday Shocker 2 – Seattle Seahawks to beat the San Francisco 49ers

I have to admit, I am not the most confident in this pick and I am going for it chiefly due to a

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lack of other options and also because historically, especially in recent times, the Seahawks have tended to get the better of the 49ers, just as the 49ers have tended to get the better of the Rams.

The 49ers have not beaten the Seahawks in either 2020 or 2021, and Seattle hold a big historic lead over their divisional rivals in games between the two. However, the flip side of that is that the form of the two teams does make it appear as if the 49ers should win this game and do so comfortably.

In truth, you could have said that earlier in the season when the teams met in California, but once again the Seahawks claimed a victory and with this game taking place in Seattle, I think that is another advantage to the Seahawks.

Admittedly, they are going to have to play massively better than they did against the Washington Football Team this week when going down to a 15-17 defeat, but I think there will be a reaction to that. Russell Wilson and his offense are too good to be out of form for too long and I think that they can get some joy against this 49ers secondary.

The Seahawks are +3.5 to land the win here and at -112, I’d take them on that and the moneyline bet which is +155.

I can’t see too many points being dsocred here, so I would go for the Under 45.5 points at -112 if that is a bet that interests you.

Let’s see how my picks do for today when you join me next week for the next set!

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