Yesterday, we brought you a fantastic, detailed post on some draft trends, top betting picks and about how tough it is to pick which player will go where in the forthcoming NFL Draft, which starts on Thursday night.
The points my colleague makes in this article are all very valid. It is very much the case that the further you move away from the first pick in the draft, the harder it becomes to accurately determine which players will come off the board next.
This is why I have decided to play it safe with this article and what I am going to focus on are the first five picks in the NFL Draft First Round this Thursday night and in particular, what players will go where in those first five picks.
We are also going to look at DraftKings Sportsbook NFL First Draft Pick’Em bonus offer, which offers you a boosted price of +390 (up from +275) for bets made on the first five picks being as follows:
- Trevor Lawrence
- Zach Wilson
- Mac Jones
- Kyle Pitts
- Ja’Marr Chase
Let’s see how my selections for the first five picks line up with this offer from DraftKings and whether it is one I would be looking to back.
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NFL Draft Pick 1 – Jacksonville Jaguars
- DraftKings Selection – Jacksonville Jaguars to select Trevor Lawrence (QB)
- My Selection – Jacksonville Jaguars to select Trevor Lawrence (QB)
All good in the first round as like everyone, I think the Jaguars and new head coach Urban Meyer are going to pick the obvious number 1 selection this yeat in Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence. Many coaches have Lawrence as the highest rated QB coming out of college since Andrew Luck and that kind of talent does not come around too often.
Jacksonville has lacked a top-quality signal caller for many years now (sorry Blake Bortles and David Garrard) and Lawrence is set to come in and bet the face of the franchise for many years to come. The Jags also have plenty of other picks in the draft to get some additional talent surrounding him and also to protect him on the offensive line.
NFL Draft Pick 2 – New York Jets
- DraftKings Selection – New York Jets to select Zach Wilson (QB)
- My Selection – New York Jets to select Zach Wilson (QB)
Since the New York Jets decided to trade away Sam Darnold to the Panthers, it has been apparent that their second pick in the draft would likely go on a replacement. Three names have been in the mix (with Lawrence likely off the board and that is Justin Fields, Mac Jones and my selection here, Zach Wilson.
You can make a case for Jones or Fields here, but Wilson seems to be the smart money pick and he looks a very solid fit for the Jets, if they can give him some additional offensive weaponry to bring the best out of him.
NFL Draft Pick 3 – San Francisco 49ers
- DraftKings Selection – San Francisco 49ers to select Mac Jones (QB)
- My Selection – San Francisco 49ers to select Mac Jones (QB)
Ever since the 49ers acquired what was originally Houston’s pick, which was acquired by Miami and then sent on to San Francisco, there has been talk over who the 49ers would pick here. Jimmy Garoppolo’s future in the Bay Area is not secure and his injury proneness is a concern.
As such, with two top level quarterbacks left on the boards here, the rumors seem to suggest that the 49ers are favoring Mac Jones as their pick here over Justin Fields. I will go along with that, but I would not be surprised to see Fields come off the board here in place of Jones. After all, plenty of rumors about selections have been wrong in the past.
NFL Draft Pick 4 – Atlanta Falcons
- DraftKings Selection – Atlanta Falcons to select Kyle Pitts (TE)
- My Selection – Atlanta Falcons Trades Pick To Denver Broncos – Broncos select Justin Fields (QB)
This is where my selections will change from the promotion offered by DraftKings, who have the Falcons taking Kyle Pitts, arguably the best player in the draft this year, with the fourth pick.
There’s no doubt that Matt Ryan would love a huge presence at tight end, something he has lacked since Tony Gonzalez retired, but with just one quarterback left on the board and a couple of teams very much in need of a franchise signal caller, I think the Falcons can get a good deal here by trading that pick and moving back a few spots.
For me, the smart move here would be for the Broncos, who lack a top class quarterback, to make their move. It would cost Denver a fair price to move up to fourth, but they are probably just a quarterback light of being a contender in their division and with Fields still on the board, I think this trade makes plenty of sense, rather than the Broncos risk losing him before they pick at number 9.
NFL Draft Pick 5 – Cincinnati Bengals
- DraftKings Selection – Cincinnati Bengals to select Ja’Marr Chase (WR)
- My Selection – Cincinnati Bengals to select Ja’Marr Chase (WR)
Having made the number 1 pick last year in Joe Burrows, it makes perfect sense for the Bengals to give their franchise quarterback his favorite wide receiver from college.
Chase is one of a trio of top-quality receivers likely to go in the first round (the others being Alabama pair DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle) but his relationship with Burrows makes this a very nice fit for a Cincinnati offense that needs help.
Tune in on Thursday night to see how accurate, or not, these predictions are for the First Round of the NFL Draft.