We didn’t hit the parlay last week, but our futures bet we put out during Wildcard Week (Bills to beat Buccaneers at +3500 and Packers to beat Chiefs at +750) went from +3500 to +900 and +750 to +450.
It’s a potentially huge development for any of you who got either of those futures in, because we are down to those four teams now. If you have either of those two bets, we’ll go through a few futures you can throw down to tie a bow around this and guarantee yourself a payday.
This week, we have a nice pair of bets for those of you confident in a particular team, guaranteeing you a positive net payout (if you’re confident in that team surviving this round).
Exact SB Outcome: Packers to beat Chiefs +750 (from last week) + Packers to beat Bills +575
If you don’t believe in the Packers, don’t bother to go with this pair. If you are on the fence, and took the Packers last week when we suggested them to beat the Chiefs at +750, there are some good reasons for this pair being a decent bet.
First, we should look at the matchups here. The Packers have a difficult matchup this week against the Buccaneers, despite every thinking otherwise. People soon forget the Packers played the Buccaneers earlier this year and the Buccaneers steamrolled them.
Now, I get the Packers were boat raced a bit in the game, but we have to talk about what happened in that one, before we can talk about the upcoming game Sunday. In their first meeting, the Buccaneers linebackers ruled the day. White and David were all over the place, spying Aaron Jones out of the backfield and blowing up Aaron Rodgers on well-timed blitzes.
The Packers led 10-0 with over 12 minutes to go in the second quarter. Rodgers had the ball back with a chance to put the Buccaneers in a big hole, and he didn’t throw an out route far enough; it was picked and returned for a touchdown. From there, the Bucs were able to consistently get pressure with four guys and drop everyone else into coverage. Following Rodgers’ second pick, the game was a complete runaway train. After going up 10-0, the Packers were outscored 38-0 the rest of the way.
For Sunday, I think the Packers will get back to more of a play action game this time around. I expect they’ll freeze the blitz and keep the linebackers in check, and Rodgers’ deep ball opportunities will be there. Even if the success doesn’t come on the ground, it’s going to open up opportunities for Aaron Rodgers.
If the Packers can stay patient on offense and trust the process of drawing attention to the run game, the success through the air should come. Defensively, the Packers were annihilated by the balanced attack of the Buccaneers in Week 6. The Packers are going to have to commit more to stopping the Buccaneers on the ground this time.
I know Tom Brady has the weapons to get it done through the air, but I think if the Packers can make them one dimensional, forcing Brady to go deeper with his passes will provide opportunity for the Bucs to get the ball back. They can’t simply keep guessing and letting Brady methodically march down the field the whole game. Realistically, I think the Packers will be much more balanced this time around, and I expect the weather will give them a big advantage in the game.
Since we expect the Packers will get by this time around, that sets up a real nice matchup for the Packers in the championship. The Packers struggle defending the run. However, both the Bills and the Chiefs don’t run the ball well at all.
Offensively, the Packers love balance, and the Bills and Chiefs struggle at stopping the run. This is why I love the Packers if you have faith in them past this weekend and took them to beat the Chiefs in the SB at +750.
How to bet it
If you got the Bills to beat the Buccaneers a couple weeks ago at our suggestions, congratulations. Those +3500 odds are now +900 for that outcome.
Now, you’ll want to know how to bet it. Let’s go with the scenario you bet $10 on it two weeks ago at +3500. The way to hedge it is simple. You stand to win $350 from it, so you can lay it out in stages now to hedge. A bet of $40 on the Packers ML for the first game at -175 guarantees you a return of $23.20, thus covering your initial $10 investment and profiting at +132 on the original futures bet.
If the Bucs win, you can bet $100 on the Chiefs at -165, giving you coverage on the initial futures bet and the loss from the Bucs game. That return will be +110 on the original futures and cover both bets following. Of course, this is a conservative hedge. If you want big money, just ride it out.
We’ve covered why we have faith in the Packers to get past the Buccaneers this week. If you’re with us on that, there’s a profitable outcome for you if you follow the instructions correctly and you already had the Packers at +750 over the Chiefs last week.
First off, if you have faith in the Packers to get there, you can always just bet the moneyline this week at -175 and next week, when they’re either a PK to +140. A simple $10 bet on the ML this week and rolling it into the ML next week will get you to around +290 odds.
However, you can guarantee yourself a profit in the championship if you have that +750 futures and don’t know how to play it. Simply bet the Packers to beat the Bills at +575 and you’re set. This way, if the Bills beat the Chiefs this weekend, your +750 “exact outcome” futures bet won’t go completely down the toilet.
If you play it like this, You’ll be getting +750 AND +575 (+650 and +475 to cover investment) if the Packers win it all.