NFL

NFL Week 3: Part 2

The first half of picks are out in our Week 3: Part 1 article.  Today, we’ll be covering the last eight games of Week 3

Let’s dive right into the second half of picks for the week!

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Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

 

Falcons at Giants -3

The Giants haven’t looked quite right through the first couple weeks. Week 1 was a total mess, but Week 2 was a game the Giants completely blew. I’m not high or confident on either of these teams, but at least the Giants have shown some defensive competency.

This should be a good week for both teams to get on track on offense. I’m still worried about Saquan’s lack of good run blocking, but the Falcons didn’t do much in Week 1 to make that a major concern.

The Falcons are more than capable at doing considerable damage to the Giants’ secondary, but I feel like the Giants have the far superior defense. I like for the Giants to execute the better offensive plan and come up with one or two decent plays on defense.

Giants 30 Falcons 24

 

Bengals +3 at Steelers

Midnight struck last week for the Bengals and their amazing carriage we saw in Week 1 turned back into a pumpkin last week. The Steelers did essentially the same thing, losing to the Raiders in an uninspiring performance.

I worry much more about the Bengals than I do the Steelers in this game. It’s not that the Steelers don’t have a bunch of issues themselves, but the Bengals are dealing with confidence issues at QB.

I like the way the Steelers defense is currently playing, and I think we could see some of the same issues with the Bengals we witnessed a week ago. Pass protection was an issue last week and things won’t get much better with the Steelers this week.

Even a slightly banged-up Steelers defense gives me more confidence, especially considering the matchup. I like the Steelers to handle the Bengals at home and make-up for a poor showing last week.

Steelers 23 Bengals 16  

 

Jets +10.5 at Broncos

After seeing the Jets game last week, who on earth would actually want to pick them this week? The answer is, of course, us! We applied this reasoning a week ago to the Titans and the Ravens. Both turned out to be extremely right, so let’s do it again.

The Jets have been plagued by pressure and strong secondaries during the first two weeks. The Broncos will not be much of a break, but we have to accept the Panthers’ defense was actually legit in Week 1.

The Jets aren’t quite in that territory the Jags are in, where I’ll take their opponent until they cover. They also aren’t a very good football team yet. Anytime you’re starting a rookie, you have to be realistic with expectations. There will be speed bumps. Alas, their defense may just be good enough to keep them relatively close this week.

The Broncos are clearly the more complete team, but the Broncos have covered both games thus far. Regression happens in the NFL and I expect that to happen this week in Denver.

Broncos 24 Jets 14

 

Dolphins at Raiders -3.5

I’m still not sold on the Raiders as a true contender, because we see stretches of this from them every year. As soon as we start to trust the Raiders, they find a way to crush your faith. As down on the Raiders as I am, I think this is a perfect matchup for them this week.

The Dolphins will be starting Jacoby Brissett in place of the injured Tua. Last week’s game can probably be thrown out the window for the Dolphins, but something smells fishy about this one. This line should be closer to 5, given the Dolphins’ offensive circumstances.

The truly odd part is the action. An overwhelming majority of the action is on the Dolphins at -115. The O/U is also only 43. I do agree this game should be lower-scoring, but it’s hard to justify the Dolphins winning on the road in Vegas, when they’re so hampered offensively.

Raiders 20 Dolphins 16

 

Buccaneers -1.5 at Rams

The Bucs have had the line sliding their direction all week. Part of it is Tom Brady’s ability to get the ball out quickly, and another part of it is the Bucs’ run defense vs the Rams rushing offense. Brady has a knack for picking apart good defenses, and the Rams will face their first major test without former defensive coordinator, Brandon Staley.

The Rams have appeared to have found the same levels of offensive efficiency they featured a few years ago. It’s early, but Matt Stafford looks to be the piece they’ve been missing since then. The Bucs started out the season well, but they are showing signs of weakness in the secondary. There’s also no Jason Pierre-Paul or Antonio Brown this week.

I like for the Rams to exploit those weaknesses this week. Expect Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp to continue their amazing chemistry this week. I like for the Rams to take care of business at home this week and ruin Tom Brady’s first game in Los Angeles.

Rams 33 Bucs 31

 

Seahawks at Vikings +2

The Vikings absolutely need to win this game if they want any chance to make the playoffs. For the Seahawks, they suffered a demoralizing meltdown at home last week against the Titans. Both these teams will be looking to bounce back this week.

The thing to be concerned about if you’re the Seahawks is that balanced Vikings offense. Like the Titans a week ago, the Vikings have a capable QB, a fantastic running back, two great receivers, and a suspect defense.

I love Seattle’s ability to throw the ball and Wilson’s ability to extend plays. I simply worry the emotional drain from last week, combined with the Vikings home field advantage, will be too much this week for the Seahawks.

Vikings 29 Seahawks 27

 

Packers at 49ers -3

The 49ers have completely owned the Packers over the last few seasons. Though there’s something less impressive about the 49ers this season, I don’t trust LaFleur against Shanahan (until he gives us a reason to).

The 49ers will likely be going heavy in their rushing attack, sprinkling-in George Kittle as well (the Packers have been shredded by tight ends this year, allowing 3 TDs in two games).

I love the way the Packers turned it on late on Monday, but a short week, going west only compounds their issues this week.

49ers 31 Packers 26

 

Eagles at Cowboys -3.5

Jalen Hurts will be the first dual threat QB the Cowboys have faced thus season. Though the Cowboys have shown some improvement defensively, the Eagles have been even more impressive on the defensive side since 2020.

These NFC East games tend to be a little wacky, so I like the Eagles this week getting 3.5 points. This feels like it should come down to a final field goal. I would be excited for the scoring potential in this game, but the first two games for both have been remarkably tame.

Ultimately, I trust the Eagles defense more than the Cowboys. It’s also worth noting the Eagles themselves have not faced a dynamic mix of QBs to this point. The difference here is that the Eagles managed to stymie both a dynamic rushing team (49ers) and a strong passing offense (Falcons).

Eagles 26 Cowboys 23

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