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NFL

NFL Week 12: Part 1

Week 11 was a second consecutive winning week. We managed to go 8-7 on the week. With just six weeks to go in the regular season, we are finally finding a little rhythm with the weekly picks, following a rough, few, middle weeks.

By The Numbers

Since Week 4, and the teams with the majority of cash wagered on them have gone 55-40. The teams with more than 60% of the cash on them are 40-32. The teams with more than 80% of cash on them are 13-6.

Remember to check the article after 11:00 am EST every Sunday. By then, we will have the final picks, factoring-in the cash numbers from PFF in our decision. Reminder: We are following the cash model, which means we follow the picks leading in cash percentage, unless there is significant late cash movement the other way.

This week, we’ll cover the first seven games of the week in this article and the last eight in part two.

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Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

 

Bears -3 at Lions

The Bears were absolutely putrid last week in their loss against the Ravens. For certain games this season, the Ravens had been known to give some QBs fits, but Sunday’s game was downright abysmal. The Bears couldn’t get things going on the ground, nor did they get the pass game going until after Justin Fields exited.

The Lions did surprisingly well on defense, though much of it was aided by the poor play of Baker Mayfield. D’andre Swift was able to break a very long TD run, but the Lions couldn’t get much going on offense outside of that. With the Lions, it’s hard to know when they’ll be awful and when they’ll be pretty decent. This week appears to be a good time to get that first win.

Wednesday’s cash numbers show the Lions with 65% of the cash handle, but those numbers are directly tied to the hook at +3.5. Since the line moved to Bears -3, the action has been split. With how bad the Bears have looked lately, perhaps Andy Dalton will inject a little more balance into this offense. I trust the Bears a little more, especially if Dalton can get the ball into Darnell Mooney’s hands.

Bears 24 Lions 20

 

Raiders at Cowboys -7.5

The Raiders have been one of the least efficient offenses this season. Since losing Henry Ruggs, they’re almost dead last in offensive efficiency. The Raiders appear to be in a tail spin. These types of falls usually don’t last too long in the NFL, but it appears the Raiders are a little worse than we may have expected. Now, the Raiders are last in the division and looking for answers.

The Cowboys are recovering from their own rough outing in Kansas City last week. After destroying the Raiders two weeks ago, the Cowboys struggled mightily on offense Sunday. It was really just a bad combination of things going for the Cowboys. They had multiple key injuries in the WR core, Zeke got banged-up, key drops, off throws, and a lot of dumb flags.

There’s a chance Ceedee Lamb won’t be cleared in time for this game. Wednesday’s cash report listed the Cowboys as the cash favorites at 58%, but the Raiders got a very large influx of cash on DraftKings on Wednesday, juicing the Raiders to -120 at +7.5. The injuries for the Cowboys appear to be a major, valid reason for the big cash movement.

Check back on Turkey day for an updated prediction!

Cowboys 24 Raiders 16

 

Bills -5.5 at Saints

The Bills got down early and couldn’t overcome the weather, despite the recent poor form of the Colts secondary. The Bills are in trouble. With the exception of the Jets games, the Bills have now been poor on offense in two of their last three games. Considering their opponents over that stretch, it’s surprising and alarming.

The Saints did a very poor job stopping the Eagles on the ground, as they allowed 242 yards rushing. For the Saints, their run defense was their strongest unit. However, Sunday’s performance might force us to completely re-think that. In addition to failing against the run, the Saints had three turnovers in the game.

The Saints were slight cash favorites at 52% on Wednesday. Both Saints Tackles and Marcus Davenport are questionable heading into this one. I’m honestly much more worried with the Saints offense than I am with Buffalo here.

Bills 27 Saints 17

 

Bucs -2.5 at Colts

The Bucs silenced any doubters this week with their impressive win over the Giants. Even though it’s only the Giants, the Bucs were able to excel in the passing game and on defense. They flat-out outclassed the Giants. Now, the Bucs will face their best opponent since Week 4 (Patriots). With the Colts’ secondary in disarray and no bad weather to aide them, the Bucs have to like their chances.

The Colts are now winners in five of their last six. Their only loss was a game they choked-away (Titans). Finally healthy, the Colts have been playing like many expected they’d be playing from the start of the season. Though the Colts had a mid-game scare from the ankle injury involving Quenton Nelson, it appears Nelson will be day-to-day heading into the Bucs game.

By Wednesday, the Bucs were holding 69% of the cash.

Check back Sunday at 11am EST for prediction

 

Jets +2.5 at Texans

The Jets are showing to be a much more competent team on offense each week. The problem is, the offensive line play has been inconsistent, as has the quarterback play. Every week, we seem to be asking which Jets team will show up. Will it be the Jets team who beat the Titans and Bengals, or will they be the team who has been routinely stomped every other week.

Like the Jets, the Texans have also been an enigma this season. After a flat-out terrible performance against the Dolphins, the Texans flipped the script and frustrated the Titans for three full quarters. Much of the issues for the Titans can be attributed to the weather and the lack of cohesion amongst the receivers. However, the Texans still deserve credit for the five turnovers.

The Texans were heavy money favorites at 74% on Wednesday.

Check back Sunday at 11am EST for prediction

 

Eagles -3.5 at Giants

The Eagles are getting better every week. For a team who didn’t have much of an identity early in the season, it appears they have found their identity as a run-first team. Ever since the Raiders loss, the Eagles have been on a hot streak. Winners in three of their last four, the Eagles have averaged 218 yards per game on the ground. With less pressure on Jalen Hurts, the Eagles are flying comfortably.

The Giants have had some impressive games thus far, as well as some equally depressing ones. The Giants have been a tough nut to crack this season for some teams. The Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Chiefs, and Raiders all struggled to score against the Giants. Offensively, the Giants still have no real rhythm. Will they be able to find it this week against the Eagles?

Wednesday’s numbers have the Eagles at 58% of the cash handle.

Check back Sunday at 11am EST for prediction

 

Panthers -2 at Dolphins

The Panthers, like so many other teams on this week’s slate, are really hard to gauge. Defensively, they have allowed the second-fewest yards in the NFL. They also rank 6th in least points allowed. The concern here with the Panthers is their offense under Cam Newton. With Cam back, will the Panthers be able to find a cohesive offensive formula to get them back into a playoff spot?

The Dolphins are better, as of late. It’s hard to know just how good they actually are, considering their last two opponents were the Jets and the Texans. Their season, thus far, has been a massive disappointment. However, there is a sliver of hope for the Dolphins to make the playoffs, and that means taking care of the Panthers at home Sunday.

The Panthers had 81% of the cash handle on Wednesday.

Check back Sunday at 11am EST for prediction

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