Week 11: Part 1 is live and can be found here. The last eight games for Week 11 are listed below in Part 2.
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Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Texans +11 at Titans
The Texans had an abysmal go of it in their last game against the Dolphins. Tyrod Taylor had maybe his worst outing as a professional and the Texans lost 17-9 to the Dolphins. It was a sloppy game (9 turnovers) but the prospect of a better week ahead is strong. This week, the Texans get the Titans, who have been impressive, yet still have flaws of their own.
The Titans are winning a lot lately. Despite missing Derrick Henry and Julio Jones for the past two weeks of their streak, the Titans have won their last six games. I’m not saying it’s a fluke at this point, but the Titans have covered five of their last six. They might be due for a regression. The X-factor this week is Tyrod Taylor. If he can protect the ball, this game should stay relatively close.
Wednesday’s cash report had 88% of the cash on the Titans at -10.5. On Sunday, the Titans were sitting pretty at 79%. This one appears to be a safe win, given the cash numbers.
Titans 27 Texans 13
Packers at Vikings +1.5
The Packers shut down the Seahawks last week in a game hyped to be among the week’s best. This game flopped harder than Waterworld, but it also revealed just how good the Packers defense is. Russell Wilson’s hand didn’t look quite right, and Aaron Rodgers didn’t look especially good. However, it was great to see AJ Dillon have a breakout game.
The Vikings just look pretty good. A week after a sad showing against Cooper Rush, the Vikings toppled their AFC Doppelganger (Chargers) in LA on Sunday. Balance is the key to this Vikings offense, but this victory can be largely attributed to their defense. By taking away the deep routes (with help from the Chargers OC) the Vikings limited the Chargers options and it worked tremendously well.
Wednesday’s line was Packers -1.5 with 51% of the cash on the Vikings. By Sunday, the Vikings cash climbed as high as 69% but an hour prior to kickoff, that number dropped to 52%. I like the Vikings at home because of their pass rush. The Vikes are top 5 in blitzing and Rodgers has been awful under pressure (passer rating of just 39 under pressure via PFF).
Vikings 27 Packers 23
Ravens at Bears +2
The Ravens are coming off a game where they appeared to have no cohesive plan. We understand it was a short week for them, but the Ravens had plenty of angles to take last Thursday and took none of them. Rashod Bateman is finally healthy and the game plan seemed to be “chuck it deep to Hollywood every play”. I’m a little concerned at the moment. Lamar Jackson and Hollywood Brown are both out Sunday.
The Bears are coming off a bye. Prior to the bye, the Bears were showing much more competent play on offense. The Defense has been pretty bad lately (31 PPG last four weeks), but the offense has shown signs of versatility and proficiency we hadn’t seen to this point. Justin Fields is moving the sticks and making plays on the ground and through the air. Can they synch-up again this week?
The cash numbers for Wednesday favored the Ravens by a narrow margin (57%). By Sunday morning, the line shifted in favor of the Bears following the news on Lamar being ruled out. Now, the Bears are 57% cash favorites. Ride the wave this week and go with the Bears.
Bears 20 Ravens 13
Bengals -1.5 at Raiders
The Bengals have been sliding since their big win over the Ravens. Since that week, the Bengals have given up an average of 37.5 points a game to the Jets and Browns. Now, they travel to Vegas to play the Raiders (who have also been rough lately). Following two consecutive solid defensive games against the Lions and Ravens, everything has completely unraveled.
The Raiders blew their game two weeks ago to the Giants and were blasted by the Chiefs in prime time. Oddly enough, the Raiders are built similarly to the Raiders. Both have inconsistent defenses, but utilize balanced offenses. The problem lately is the Raiders’ ability to stretch the field in the passing game. With no deep threat present, teams have keyed-in on Waller and Renfrow.
The Raiders were a slight cash favorite on Wednesday at 54%. By Sunday, the Bengals held 84% of the cash. Though the concern may be with the Bengals defense, the Raiders offense has been terrible.
Bengals 30 Raiders 24
Cardinals at Seahawks -2.5
The Cardinals were completely dismantled last week against the Panthers. Following a week of surprising competency without Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins, the replacement screws came off in a bad way last week. When your offense struggles to stay on the field, it can exponentially drain the stamina of your defense, which is exactly what happened last week.
Seattle really didn’t look good last week, and much of that can be attributed to Russell Wilson’s hand/Finger injury. It’s hard to know what exactly to expect from this team on a week-to-week basis, but you can be sure the team is at the very least, inconsistent. We’ve seen halves this season where they’re clicking, followed by second halves of complete impotence.
The Cardinals just continue to get disrespected on the cash numbers. By Wednesday, the Seahawks accounted for 70% of the cash numbers for this game. By Sunday, that jumped to 85%. Feel safe about the Seahawks here.
Seahawks 30 Cardinals 17
Cowboys +2.5 at Chiefs
Last week’s performance against the Falcons reinforced two things. The first is that the Cowboys just had an off-week against the Broncos. The second is the Falcons aren’t good. After a game in which the Cowboys just couldn’t connect through the air, they were able to put everyone’s concerns to rest with a resounding beatdown of the Falcons.
Similar to the Cowboys, the Chiefs were also beating the “we’re back” drum this week, as the Chiefs beat the Raiders like a drum in prime time. Pat Mahomes, his receiving options, and the defense no longer appear broken; at least for now. The defense stepped-up in a big way, frustrating and stifling the Raiders in the second half.
The Cowboys may be America’s favorite team, but money is America’s favorite pastime. On Wednesday, the Chiefs had 63% of the cash on this game. By Sunday, the Cowboys held the edge at 53%. By the model, we have to go Cowboys here.
Cowboys 30 Chiefs 27
Steelers at Chargers -6
The Steelers have plenty of flaws as a team. Despite their 5-3-1 record, the Steelers have not lost in their last five games. The defense has been better than people care to mention, while the offense continues to do what they can with an ancient QB and a terrible offensive line. With Big Ben likely out again this week, the Steelers will need their defense to carry them once again.
The Chargers are being held back by Joe Lombardi (OC). Last week, they tried to dissect the Vikings defense by utilizing a short passing attack, that did nothing more than giving the Chargers defense a little more time to rest on the sidelines. With a 5-4 record, the Chargers currently hold the final playoff spot in the AFC, but need to get back on track soon.
The Wednesday and Thursday cash numbers were still not released on this game. Sunday’s numbers back the Chargers at 51%. I like the Chargers to stretch the Steelers out this week and get back on track in the division.
Chargers 26 Steelers 17
Giants +10.5 at Bucs
The Giants are playing much better lately. Even with all the injuries, they’re still 2-1 over their last three, with all of their opponents holding solid records. Kadadius Toney should be back this week, as Saquan Barkley might as well. The Giants also had a very close game with the Bucs a year ago.
Tom Brady doesn’t play well at night games. It was a theory last season, based on his bed time. As silly as it sounds, it holds some weight. Now, the Bucs did beat the Cowboys in the opener this season to put the theory to rest, but the Bucs don’t look good at all lately. With the defensive woes creeping back into the headlines, can Tom Brady break them out of this slump?
The Thursday cash numbers were all Bucs at 84%.
Check back Monday at 5:00 EST for score prediction