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NFL

NFL Week 11: Part 1

Week 10 was the rebound we desperately needed. We finished the week with an 8-6 record between both articles. We went with the cash model but went a little outside the model with the Vikings and Raiders (1-1 on those two).

The Dolphins, Lions, Bills, Saints, Patriots, Vikings, Panthers, and Packers won for us this week. We did like the Vikings, mainly due to the fact they were playing the Chargers, at home and getting the hook (in a matchup with two teams notorious for kicking issues). It paid off as we had a very solid week overall.

By The Numbers

Since Week 4, and the teams with the majority of cash wagered on them have gone 52-43. The teams with more than 60% of the cash on them are 35-30. The teams with more than 80% of cash on them are 10-5.

Remember to check the article after 11:00 am EST every Sunday. By then, we will have the final picks, factoring-in the cash numbers from PFF in our decision. Reminder: We are following the cash model, which means we follow the picks leading in cash percentage, unless there is significant late cash movement the other way.

This week, we’ll cover the first seven games of the week in this article and the last eight in part two.

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Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

 

Patriots -6.5 at Falcons

The Patriots are quickly evolving into one of the AFC’s best teams. Early in the season, Mac Jones wasn’t quite ready to make the big throws required to both setup and bail-out the offense. Since Week 6, Jones has been making more challenging throws to receivers downfield in clutch situations. Last week’s performance against the Panthers was his best game yet.

The Falcons are just an average team who can hang with most, but can’t help fall victim to the occasional slaughter. Last week’s mercy killing at the hands of the Cowboys was the perfect storm of everything going wrong. With a little less than half the season left, the Falcons are still looking for offensive balance and defensive consistency.

The Patriots were at 86% cash as of Wednesday. By 4pm Thursday, the Falcons climbed to 65%, despite the drop of the line from 7 to 6.5. With such an influx of late cash rolling-in on the Falcons, stay away from this one if you can. Even with a late cash surge the other way, I just can’t separate myself from how polar opposite these two have been in recent weeks.

FINAL: Patriots 25 Falcons 0

 

Saints at Eagles -3

The Saints are hanging around in the NFC South. With the recent slide of the Bucs, the Saints are just a game back in the division and currently sit in the six seed in the NFC playoff race. On the surface, this Saints team is going to be judged by their mess of a QB situation. Under the surface, this is a team with a strong defense and run game, who can give team fits in certain matchups.

The Eagles likely had their best performance of the season on Sunday (well, maybe the Falcons game was better). Hurts finally looked completely comfortable and competent in the downfield passing game. Devonta Smith had 66 yards and two touchdowns, and the Eagles defense stifled Teddy Bridgewater all day.

Wednesday’s cash report listed the Saints at 85%. By Sunday morning, the cash flipped to the Eagles at 71%. Even with the line shifting all the way to -3, the Eagles are still getting heavy action. According to the model, the pick here (with an over/under of 41) is still Eagles.

Eagles 23 Saints 17

 

Dolphins -3.5 at Jets

The Dolphins played their best game of the season last week. After a sluggish offensive start, the Dolphins turned to banged-up Tua to rescue them against the Ravens. The story was more about their defense, which contained and frustrated Lamar Jackson from the start to finish. With seven games to go, the Dolphins have a shot to make the playoffs. As of today, they’re 2.5 games out.

The Jets are in trouble this week. As if last week wasn’t demoralizing enough, the Jets are making another QB change and going with Joe Flacco this week against the Dolphins. With the run defense in complete disarray and their top pick out until he’s 100%, the Jets are going to make an interesting case study this week for the cold team vs a hot team theory.

The Dolphins were getting the great majority of cash on Wednesday at 91%. By Sunday morning, the cash was still strong at 90%. However, DraftKings got some heavy action to the Jets early Sunday. Even with the heavy DK action on the Jets, I like the way the Dolphins have been playing lately.

Dolphins 24 Jets 20

 

WFT at Panthers -3

The WFT proved the NFL is a matchup-based and a week-to-week league. Last week, after losing four straight, the WFT came out and controlled the Buccaneers from the start. Taylor Heinicke was both efficient and clutch, making a number of tough throws under pressure. Gibson looks back to 100%, and the WFT set the record for the season-long drive at 10:26.

The Panthers also appeared to take the right step in turning their season around, as they demolished the Cardinals last week. The return of Cam Newton sparked both fans and players alike. The defense also appeared to be back in top form. The only questions going forward revolve around their offense, which still appears to need work in helping them find their identity.

By Wednesday, the Panthers were holding 53% of the cash. On Sunday morning, the numbers came in with WFT leading the cash at 51%. The angle I’m going with here in a close split is the rushing ability of the Panthers. Even with Cam’s passing ability largely in doubt, the Panthers defense is strong enough to hold the WFT in check. With the rushing attack of the Panthers even more dynamic now, I trust them more.

Panthers 23 WFT 16

 

Colts +7 at Bills

The Colts are making a mid-season push, but last week had it’s own set of challenges. After jumping out to a decent lead, the Colts nearly let last week slip-away late. Once the Jaguars keyed-in on the Colts run game, Carson Wentz was unable to keep the chains moving and it was the Colts defense who bailed them out.

The Bills are flying high, again. After their hiccup against the Jaguars two weeks ago, the Bills flattened the Jets on Sunday. Josh Allen was back to playing great football, as everything the bills did seemed to work. The Bills went back to a more balanced attack (24 rush attempts & 28 pass attempts). Will the Bills be able to keep-up the offensive dominance again this week?

The Bills were heavy money favorites at 73% on Wednesday. Sunday’s numbers had the Colts still ahead at 69%, as the spread now (-7) removes the hook from the Bills. The concern here is the health of the Bills offensive line. With another injury on the line, the Bills are in the same territory they were in two weeks ago in Jacksonville. That’s not where you want to be.

Bills 23 Colts 20

 

Lions at Browns -13

The Lions didn’t lose last week, so that’s a good step. Unfortunately, they didn’t win either. Last week, the Lions ran a very run-heavy script in bad weather and appeared totally fine ending the game with the tie. TJ Hockenson and the WRs were not utilized much, but the Lions defense did enough to slow the hobbled Steelers. This week, they have to find a way to slow the Browns on the ground.

The Browns were embarrassed last week against the Patriots. After taking an early 7-0 lead, the Pats went on to score the last 45 points. With Baker Mayfield possibly injured and the defense reeling from last week, the Browns are in serious trouble in the AFC playoff race. Even with a backup QB and the Lions in town, it’s still a tall order in the NFL.

One late bit of news here is the injury status of Jared Goff. As of Sunday morning, Tim Boyle has been announced to start over David Blough.

The Lions somehow continue to get heavy cash each week. On Wednesday, the Lions were at 59% of the cash. As of Sunday, the Browns are now 60% and the spread has ballooned to -13. This has happened six times this season with a line moving this much on Sunday and teams with the swing are 5-1.

Browns 31 Lions 14

 

49ers -6.5 at Jaguars

The 49ers finally looked like the 49ers we were promised in the preseason. The “hey, wait a minute; Shanahan really isn’t that good” was nice while it lasted, but last week’s win should buy him four or five more weeks of people talking about how great he is. With Kittle and Deebo back, they looked dangerous. On defense, they did a great job against the Rams as well, en route to a massive win in prime time.

The Jaguars look good for stretches and awful for others. After a massive defensive performance against the Bills, the Jags followed it up with a bad first half but an impressive second half against the Colts. The questions still remain surrounding the offense, but we can’t deny how well the defense has been playing lately.

The Jaguars held a surprising 63% of the cash on Wednesday. By Sunday, with no line movement, the 49ers were at 59%. The angle here is how the Jags will defend both Kyle Shanahan’s dynamic rushing attack and how they’ll properly game plan for George Kittle and Deebo Samuel.

49ers 30 Jaguars 16

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