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NFL

NFL Week 10: Part 1

Week 9 was the culmination of a three-week run in which the house has cleaned out both the public bettors and sharp bettors alike. Over the last three weeks, the sharp bettors have gone 14-26 ATS, while the public bettors have gone 16-24 ATS. It’s been a wild ride the last few weeks, with no real indication the wild season is settling down.

For those of you who read Part 1 of Week 9, congrats on the cash on the Elijah Moore prop. Aside from that, apologies for how the rest of the week went. On the week, we registered wins from the Falcons, Chargers, and Packers. Everything else was a loss. It was our worst week of the season, by far. This week, we look to bounce back, again.

By The Numbers

Since Week 4, and the teams with the majority of cash wagered on them have gone 39-28. The teams with more than 60% of the cash on them are 30-26. The teams with more than 80% of cash on them are 9-5.

Remember to check the article after 11:00 am EST every Sunday. By then, we will have the final picks, factoring-in the cash numbers from PFF in our decision. Reminder: We are following the cash model. It has highs and it has lows and right now, we are just trying to ride out the storm.

This week, we’ll cover the first seven games of the week in this article and the last seven in part two.

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Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

 

Ravens at Dolphins +8

The Ravens engineered an inspired effort in last week’s game against the Vikings. After falling behind 24-10, the Ravens offense and defense stepped-up and got into gear, eventually grinding the win out in OT. The Ravens have been a relatively volatile team this year, dominating for extended periods of games and struggling mightily in others.

The Dolphins are still a bit of an enigma. First off, they aren’t a good team. We know that much in 2021. However, this team last season put together a solid season last year and almost the entire team is still intact. In a sense, they are a ticking time bomb, unlike many of the other seemingly bad teams in the league. Will this be the week they awaken?

Like it or not, the Ravens offer an entirely foreign set of problems to the Dolphins. With how well the Ravens have played in spurts this season, that potency is enough for the Ravens to pull away at some point in this game. Wednesday’s cash handle on the Ravens was at 97%.

Though the cash handles haven’t been great lately, this number is staggering and teams with 90%+ cash are 9-5 this season ATS. As of Thursday, the cash is on Baltimore at just 51% with the tickets at 79%. Due to such a major difference between the cash percentage and the tickets (and the cash handle swing to Miami), the Sharp money appears to be on the side of the Dolphins.

Ravens 27 Dolphins 20

 

Bills -13 at Jets

The Bills had an abysmal effort last week against the Jaguars. As 14.5-point favorites, the Bills lost to one of the league’s worst teams. The reason for it was solely on the offense. The Bills inability to effectively run the ball opened the door for the Jags to run a wide array of blitzes and confusing coverages. The question is, will Robert Salah and the Jets do the same to them this week?

The Jets had just emerged victorious against the Bengals two weeks ago, prior to getting blown out in the first half last week against the Colts. The Jets have certainly found a spark offensively in recent weeks, but the Bills serve as a significant road block this week to their development. Defensively, the Jets are still a massive liability. Have they finally formed an identity on offense?

This line opened at -13 for Buffalo but dropped to -11 by Thursday. Even with a heavy spread early in the week, the action has been on Buffalo at 78% but dropped to 54% on Thursday. The health of their offensive line and their inability to run effectively are much of the reasoning behind the action. As of Sunday morning, the line moved back to Bills -13 with Buffalo garnering 81% of the handle.

Bills 31 Jets 17

 

Buccaneers -9.5 at WFT

The Buccaneers got a nice break last week from the chaotic mess the rest of the NFL was subjected to. Going into their break, the Bucs were quietly in the conversation amongst the favorites in the NFC. However, the flat weeks by the Rams, Cowboys, and Saints pushed the Bucs right back to the front of that conversation.

The WFT got a much-needed break after a four-game slide. On the brink of being out of the playoff race already, the WFT has to be getting desperate. Last season’s division winners, the WFT has floundered this season so far. With the offense in disarray and the defense a completely disjointed disaster, the WFT has to get it together soon, or this season will be lost.

The Bucs opened at -9.5 and with heavy cash action (89% on Thursday). Since then, the line has drifted a half-point and the Buccaneers now have just 69% of the cash handle. According to the cash model, we should stick with the Bucs this week, even with the slight sharp action the other way.

Buccaneers 34 WFT 17

 

Falcons +8 at Cowboys 

The Falcons are so insanely mediocre this season. After starting the season off with back-to-back embarrassing losses, the Falcons have turned things around, going 4-2 over their last six. Last week’s win in New Orleans was particularly impressive, considering the game the Saints had the week prior win over the Bucs. Can the Falcons keep it up against the suddenly inept Cowboys?

The Cowboys were a complete mess last week at home. They seemed to think they could show up and the Broncos would roll over like they’ve done against every other decent team this season (we thought so, too). Maybe last week was just a hiccup and the Cowboys will be back to the well-balanced force they were every week prior. The Cowboys appeared to be just out of synch and not necessarily out-schemed.

The Cowboys opened at -9 but the line had dropped to -8 by late Thursday with 78% of the cash on the Cowboys. By Sunday morning, the line shrank to 8, with the Falcons holding the cash handle at 65%. It appears bettors may still be weary of the Cowboys after the massive letdown against the Broncos last week.

Cowboys 27 Falcons 23

 

Saints +3 at Titans

For the second time this season, the Saints took down an NFC title contender (two weeks ago). Unfortunately, the Saints fell to the Falcons at home last week. It’s possible the Saints may just be one of those weird teams who is average against most of the league and terrific against good teams. This week, they face a Titans team we have similar questions about.

The Titans slayed another giant this week, destroying the Rams in spectacular fashion in LA. Like the Saints, the Titans have been a much different team when facing regular teams. As it currently stands, the Titans are the top team in the AFC and look elite on defense (somehow) over the past few weeks.

The Titans opened varying around 2.5 to 3-point favorites. On Thursday, the Titans were at -2.5 with just 51% of the cash. As of Sunday morning, the Saints held 59% of the cash handle, with the line drifting to Tennessee at -3. I would expect Sean Payton has a few things up his sleeve this week in Tennessee, considering how oddly tight this line is. Something doesn’t quite smell right here.

Saints 23 Titans 20

 

Jaguars at Colts -10

If it weren’t for the absolute stinker a couple weeks back, I’d say it looks like the Jaguars are coming into form. Last week, the Jags defense shut down the Bills passing attack. Offensively, they were awful, but their defense won them a game, and that is an encouraging sign. The problem this week is that they’re facing another blossoming team with a better all-around roster and coach.

The Colts are on the rise. After losing in OT to the Titans, the playoff window appeared to shrink considerably. However, the announcement of the loss of Derrick Henry gives the Colts some narrow hope they can still capture the division crown by the end of the season. As for now, the Colts have to take care of business and continue their upward trajectory.

Thursday’s cash handle was all Colts at 93% (-10 to -10.5). Sunday morning’s numbers were still favoring the Colts at 59% but the massive cash drop should raise some red flags. Avoid this one if possible.

Colts 31 Jaguars 19

 

Lions +5.5 at Steelers

The Lions are still winless. The sad part of this is how broken the team has appeared after each game, but the truth is that this team is either pretty decent or incredibly terrible (depending on the week). This week, the Lions travel to Pittsburgh to face the suddenly-hot Steelers. On paper, this isn’t a promising matchup for the Lions. Will they step-up this week, coming out of the bye?

The Steelers won at home on Monday on perhaps the worst-officiated game of the season. It wasn’t that the officiating was bad; it was more about how every call went the Steelers’ way. Even with the help of the refs, the Bears still nearly won this game. Can the Steelers keep their solid run of play going this week against the broken-down Lions?

By Thursday, this line moved from Steelers -9 to Steelers -8.5. The Cash handle held steady at 77% Steelers. Since Thursday, a lot has happened. Ben is now out after testing positive Sunday morning. The line dropped to 5.5 and now the Lions hold the cash handle at 79%. Hammer the Lions here, as they’ll likely sell out on stopping the run

Lions 20 Steelers 17

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