Collin Hulbert is back with another week of his expert DFS picks as he tries to help you win your DFS contests this week.
Week 6 was a real boom/bust week. All three quarterbacks were huge booms and Austin Hooper was huge in both lineups. I sent out a tweet Saturday about subbing Kamara because of the injury news, but I didn’t swap him out in one of my own lineups. Typically, I’d swap out a guy with an ankle issue, but it’s cost me more times than you’d think and honestly, there weren’t great high-end options on the board at the position anyway.
We cashed in one (160) and crashed in another (110) this week. Overall, I wasn’t too pleased with how some of the games worked out. I played Kittle and Hooper over two lineups but got a goose from the immediately injured, Will Dissly, in a flex role. I suppose we were lucky to avoid some of the monstrous flops out there (Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Malcolm Brown, Cooper Kupp, Joe Mixon, Jarvis Landry, Jared Goff, Gardner Minshew, DJ Chark, Dede Westbrook, etc). We certainly dodged a lot of bullets out there, but we were disappointed with a lack of touchdown production from many of last week’s recommendations.
DraftKings Lineup Scores for our 2019 season
A look at our DFS totals for the six weeks of the NFL season.
Week 1: 168
Week 2: 146
Week 3: 185 & 158
Week 4: 142 & 127
Week 5: 182 & 162
Week 6: 160 & 110
Week 7 is another limited slate with the stud running backs and receivers. Dalvin Cook looks like the real slam dunk amongst the running backs, while the next best back is anyone’s guess. If we’re being realistic, Dalvin Cook probably isn’t going to finish as the number one guy this week, because that’s how daily fantasy usually goes. This week, we are going back to the double stack, just as last week.
Our Vikings stack and Cardinals stacks worked out relatively well a week ago. Of course, we went with Thielen instead of Diggs and Larry Fitzgerald instead of David Johnson, so we didn’t maximize the stack as we hoped. This week, we’ll be stacking the Cardinals, Falcons, and the Rams. Obviously, the Rams pooped their pants last week against the 49ers, but that 49ers pass rush is no joke, and I’m not worried about the Falcons and their league lowest pass rush this week against the Rams. As far as I’m concerned, the Rams players are all going to be a tremendous value this week.
As it is set every week, the prices on DraftKings are listed next to every player in parentheses.
Kyler Murray (DK-$6,700
For the second week in a row, we are going with Kyler in another great matchup. This week, Kyler will face the Giants in New York. There’s another really solid chance we’ll get a game very similar to a week ago, since Saquan Barkley, Evan Engram, and Sterling Shephard are all expected to return to the lineup. I expect this game to be a shootout, so there’s going to be plenty of incentive for both teams to continue to push on the offensive end. Kyler’s expected output for the game is 305 yards and two touchdowns, to go along with 40 yards rushing.
Matt Ryan (DK-$6,300)
Matt Ryan is the sportsbook favorite for most fantasy points from a quarterback on Sunday and it’s not even really close (330 yards and 3 touchdowns). He has a straightforward matchup against a Rams defense, who has struggled to make much of an impact on most of their games this season. The Rams will have their newly acquired cornerback, Jalen Ramsey, likely good to play as he was deliberately missing games while he was demanding a trade from Jacksonville.
Aaron Donald is the only player on this defense Ryan needs to be wary about, as I wouldn’t expect Julio Jones to really be locked down by anyone. That being said, this should be one of those games where Julio serves as a decoy for long stretches and Austin Hooper and Calvin Ridley get a lot more work. It likely won’t be a mistake-free game for Ryan as he should be under a bit of pressure, but this game, as with most Falcons games, should be a negative game script, so Matt will be airing it out.
Jared Goff (DK-$6,200)
Goff’s line isn’t as massive as you might think. That’s likely 100% to do with the fact he’s been awful under pressure this season. The good news this week is that the Falcons have been the league’s worst pass rush all season, so Goff will have very clean pockets from which he will be operating. His receivers also have very favorable matchups with the Falcons secondary. I’d say this is a slam dunk pick this week, but Goff has been so awful under pressure, it’s a little difficult to un-see the awful play we’ve witnessed at times this season. His line is 2.25 touchdowns and 300 yards passing.
Dalvin Cook (DK-$8,000)
Dalvin Cook is facing the 30th ranked rushing defense. This guy has been the most impressive and consistent running back all season, so there really isn’t much of a reason to worry about his production this week. He’s as close to a sure thing as you’re going to get in daily fantasy. His line for rushing is 90 yards and his line for receiving is 40, so at 130 total yards, it’s hard to make a better case for any other player in the league this week. Start him with confidence this week.
Josh Jacobs (DK-$5,000)
Jacobs is currently sitting in the 75-yard range for this week on rushing yardage, but the Raiders will be without their top receiver and have recently announced they plan on getting Jacobs the ball through the air more than they currently are. I think Jacobs is a very cheap, high-volume play this week who actually has a lot of potential for a large spike in production, due to the lack of weapons available this week for the Raiders. The Packers haven’t been stellar against the run this season, so it’s realistic to expect Jacobs will outplay his price on DraftKings.
Coleman has logged an average of 18 touches over the past two weeks since his return from injury. He’s going to have a plus matchup this week versus a Redskins defense that has struggled all season long. The 49ers are a run-heavy team who will platoon multiple backs in a given week, so you can expect in a positive game script, Coleman should be set up for 15 + touches yet again. He’s also been the back of choice near the goal line in recent weeks. His rushing line is 65 yards this week, so his total expected yardage should be around 80 total yards.
Cooper Kupp (DK-$7,400)
Cupp had a very disappointing game last week. It was his first real dud game of the year, but highlights a more critical situation with the Rams offense of late — their offensive line. Under pressure, Goff is among the top five most inaccurate passers in the NFL in 2019. His 7:7 TD to INT ratio is an alarming ratio for a quarterback who just signed the most lucrative deal in NFL history. There’s been much to be concerned about with Jared Goff this season, as the breakdown in O-line play had transformed McVay’s offense into a post-apocalyptic version of its former self.
Goff hasn’t been able to get the offense into a rhythm all season, Gurley is dealing with lingering injuries, just a year into his massive, record-setting contract for a running back. This week, however, should be all butterflies and rainbows. The Rams fans will get to calm themselves down and relax as they convince themselves the last few weeks were just a fluke. Kupp will have all kinds of favorable looks against the league’s worst defense and pass rush.
Kenny Golladay (DK-$5,800)
Golladay has a favorable matchup against a pass defense ranked 22nd against opposing receivers. He’s had a very solid floor all season and it’s clear the connection between him and Stafford is more of a priority and less of a fluke. Golladay is a safe play here at a discount. His line is around 80 yards, so for the price of just $5,800 on DraftKings, Golladay is a huge value this week.
Will Fuller (DK-$6,200)
Will Fuller had three touchdowns just two weeks ago. Last week, he dropped three touchdowns. I’m expecting the opportunity to be there again. The matchup is juicy, with the Colts being the 24th ranked defense against opposing receivers. There’s currently no line out for Fuller due to his questionable status (calf) but if he’s cleared to go, his line should be somewhere between 60-80 yards, with a high touchdown upside.
Evan Engram (DK-$6,500)
One of the sure bets all season has been starting the tight end facing the Cardinals. With the exception of the Bengals game — which, of course, we picked Eifert — every tight end facing the Cardinals seems to have a personal-best day. This weekend’s matchup may be the best tight end — from a receiving standpoint — they’ve faced all year. Engram is capable of shredding defenses.
Think of him like an even more polished and athletic version of TJ Hockenson. He’s got the speed and athleticism of a wide receiver and with the return of Sterling Shephard and the focus on Saquan Barkley this week, the throwing lanes should be open for business. I’m starting Engram in all contests this week.
Mark Andrews (DK-$4,900)
Welcome back to the Mark Andrews recommendation. It’s been a few weeks since we’ve recommended him, but the loss of yet another tight end (Will Dissly) has brought us back to the familiar and reliable options we’ve been rotating all season. Andrews’ yardage total estimate this week is around 67 yards. This matchup is pretty solid by the numbers for Andrews. He’s been Lamar Jackson’s favorite target all year, so there’s a good chance he puts in a solid week again in this one. It’s also the first week in some time he hasn’t been listed on the injury report, so there should be no hesitation on our end with starting him, right? Set it and forget it.
Darren Waller (DK-$4,700)
Welcome back to the slate, Darren Waller! Waller has been the safest play for the price all season long. He’s got, on paper, a tough matchup, but consider the fact Tyrell Williams is out this week and Waller is already Derek Carr’s favorite target. His line this week is 65 yards, so if you can trust the lack of options on the team and put your faith in the best value floor man of 2019, Waller should again give you pretty good return for his price.
Bills D (DK-$4,300)
The Bills are playing the Dolphins this week, so it’s fairly obvious one of two things will happen here. Either he throws two to five picks and the Dolphins come completely unraveled, or he throws three touchdowns and this game is extremely close. I’m leaning towards outcome #1 because why else would he be in? Did you see the Dolphins last week? They almost came back and won against the Redskins, before realizing it was in their best interest to call a totally bogus play on the two-point conversion and preserve their #1 pick in this upcoming season.
Josh Rosen has looked real bad too but sitting him is just their tactic right now so they can salvage his value when they trade him at some point this year or next. Start the Bills, please. The Dolphins are begging you to.
49ers D (DK-$4,100)
I recommended the 49ers defense last week, before most people realized they were actually good and before people realized there may be real issues with the Rams. This week, they get the Redskins! It’s probably not going to be a difficult game prep. I can imagine Kyle Shanahan sitting there at practice saying, “alright guys, we need to focus on stopping their 34-year-old running back and watch out for that rookie receiver they have. And also, you know, don’t get too drunk during the game because if we give up any scores to this team, the NFL will be investigating.”
In all seriousness, the 49ers may be a better play than the Bills this week due to their blitz rate and the floor that gives us in DFS. Start them with confidence.
Saints D (DK-$2,900)
Every week, I give you a sleeper option at a position. Last week was the 49ers for defense. In case you haven’t noticed, the Saints have shut down some pretty solid offenses all year long. The Bears are all set for the return of their “franchise quarterback” (don’t laugh…too hard), Mitch Trubisky. The interesting part to me is, I think Trubisky is a more risky play at the position than Chase Daniel. I get Trubisky has shown flashes of being a good quarterback, but he’s also been awful for stretches of time. This week is an interesting game because the room for error is going to be slim with the Saint’s solid defense.
Christian Kirk (DK-$5,000)
Monitor Kirk’s health leading up to this game. I anticipate there will be a lot of scoring in this game, seeing as there are two dreadful defenses involved and many weapons on each offense. Kirk is a low-priced option without much of a resume to brag about, but he’s been getting a heavy target share this season and the odds the Cardinals are in a negative game script are pretty good.
There’s no current line right now, but by my own research, I estimate it’s probably around 70 yards. This is the second-best matchup for the Cardinals’ offense all season, maybe the third, depending on whether the Bengals are actually worse than the Giants on defense (it’s possible). For the price, he should be a solid play with a nice floor this week.
Darrell Henderson Jr (DK-$3,500)
This is one you’ll want to monitor heading into Sunday, but if Darrell Henderson gets the nod to start or Brown is listed in the pre-game as “Limited,” slot Henderson in for a cheap dice roll with a potentially huge payoff. On limited touches last week, Henderson looked explosive and dangerous in the backfield, which is something we haven’t seen much out of the Rams backfield so far this year. In a game projected as a shootout, featuring a complete mess of a defense (Falcons) and one searching for its identity (Rams), there’s a lot to look forward to from both these offensives. Henderson should be the best value piece in this whole pie. If he gets the green light, grab up the cheapest piece of the pie, it’ll be tasty this week.
Calvin Ridley (DK-$5,400)
Ridley’s line this week is 67 yards. He’s also not going to draw Jalen Ramsey in coverage, so I expect Austin Hooper and Ridley should get a heavy dose of targets in this shootout with the Rams. If you like the appeal of a potential shootout, Ridley has a tremendous upside. He has a history of games with multiple scores, so it’s realistic for him to have a high ceiling.
Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who got a little too into Football analysis. Since leaving the Army, he’s practically the Jack Ryan of football analysts. But he spends most of his days with his wife and two daughters, so he is clearly a better father than Jack Ryan.
Follow Collin on Twitter @CollinHulbert