A look at Collin Hulbert DFS picks for Week 10 of the NFL season as we try to help win your contests this Sunday.
Week 9 was our best week of the season! In one lineup, the stack of Russell Wilson, Josh Jacobs, Jaylen Samuels, and Tyler Lockett helped to produce a winner at 172 points over a 136 point cash line.
Our second lineup of Matt Stafford, Derreck Henry, Tyler Lockett, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Jaylen Samuels, and Davante Parker helped push us over the 200 point marker with a finish of 201 over a 137 point cash line in an 11 player 50/50. We did a tournament lineup, which I always just do for kicks and don’t keep track of, and it bombed miserably with Darnold, Aaron Jones, Robby Anderson, Allen Robinson, and the Seattle defense being the tragic underperformers of the bunch. A few players were booms but hey, the goal of this article is to win in 50/50s so tournaments will continue to be longshot plays, as always.
Regardless of the Hail Mary fail, the week was a smashing success. This week’s homeruns bumped out yearly average up by 7.7 points.
DraftKings Lineup Scores for our 2019 season
Week 1: 168
Week 2: 146
Week 3: 185 & 158
Week 4: 142 & 127
Week 5: 182 & 162
Week 6: 160 & 110
Week 7: 146 & 85
Week 8: 162 & 136
Week 9: 201 & 172
Yearly average: 155.7
Avg 50/50 cash in DraftKings: 136
Week 10 Preview
This week, we are stacking the Giants and pairing that cheap stack of Jones and Tate alongside Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey is a whopping $10,500 this week, which may seem absurd, but the guy’s floor and ceiling are off the charts. We’re also optioning Lamar Jackson as a solo start, hinging on his health prior to Sunday, while the other strong option this week should be the stack of Saints (Brees and Thomas). Our main rosters this week will be the Giants and Saints stacks, with the tournament roster led by Lamar Jackson.
As it is set every week, the prices on DraftKings are listed next to every player in parentheses.
|Prize draw dates|
Lamar Jackson (DK-$7,300)
Lamar Jackson has a very appealing matchup this week against a divisional foe. Monitor his status ahead of Sunday. Jackson’s expected passing touchdown total is 2, while his rushing yardage is around 75. With such a high floor, Jackson’s price will always be relatively high, but it’s probably going to be worth it this week as the Bengals are the 31st ranked team against opposing quarterbacks and allowed a whopping 33.6 fantasy points to Jackson in their first meeting. Jackson is a safe play this week, with no feasible stack to roster alongside him.
Drew Brees (DK-$6,700)
Drew Brees is the only quarterback on the main slate this week with a line of 3+ passing touchdowns. His expected yardage total is 300. He’s facing the abysmal Falcons defense, who actually made Marcus Mariota look great earlier in the season. There are just so many reasons to take Brees this week that make sense, including the fact the Falcons have been decent against opposing running backs. This game has all the makings of a showcase game for Brees. Stack him with Thomas for a good time.
Daniel Jones (DK-$5,700)
Against bad defenses this season, Daniel Jones has been incredible. This Jets defense definitely qualifies as terrible. Though the possibility of this being more of a Saquan type of game exists, the fact Jones’ top receiver is priced at just $5,900 makes his stack much more of a great option here. Add McCaffrey to this lineup to maximize the value and you’ve got yourself a roster with massive upside. Jones’ line this week is 35 rushing yards, 265 passing yards, and two passing touchdowns. For the price, he has one of the best lines out there.
Christian McCaffrey (DK-$10,500)
This price is enough to scare off, well, most capable DFS players. I typically avoid the elite backs in search of value, but with such a cheap stacking option available this week between Daniel Jones and Golden Tate, there’s plenty of budget to use. McCaffrey is having a legendary season, up there with the likes of 2006 Ladanian Tomlinson and currently ahead of Chris Johnson’s 2009 (2K yards rushing) season. McCaffrey’s expected output this week is 160 total yards and he’s -250 to find the end zone. Even for his price, we have extremely cheap, good options at receiver and running back this week. Take the plunge and be a part of DFS history.
Marlon Mack (DK-$7,000)
Mack’s expected rushing total this week is 95 yards. That should tell you a lot. For a guy who doesn’t get many receptions, this is a very solid play this week due to both the matchup and the Colts’ current depth for passing options. When Zach Pascal is the top option this week, it’s safe to assume Mack will be getting a heavy dose of carries and touches. I am rolling with Mack in the Saints stack this week.
Derrick Henry (DK-$6,400)
Henry continues to be one of the most reliable and predictable players in DFS this year. I have a weekly podcast in which I pick a bust of the week and a boom of the week. I have gone with Henry now on multiple occasions for both and he’s yet to let me down. Because of the status of Pat Mahomes this week, Henry’s line has yet to be posted, but I would venture to guess it’s somewhere between 85 to 95 yards in a great matchup this week.
Despite the perception that the Chiefs have a bad defense, it’s been better as of late, and the Titans tend to lean heavily on using the run to both wear down opposing defenses and set up their play-action. With Corey Davis out this week, there’s even more incentive for the Titans to run Henry into the ground.
Michael Thomas (DK-$8,300)
115 yards is the line this week for Thomas. Just let that sink in for a second. The game script shouldn’t matter a whole lot because it never really does when it comes to the Saints. I’ve seen Drew Brees ruin my fantasy playoffs before when the Saints were up 21 in the fourth quarter against the Falcons once before.
There’s no love lost between these rivals and I fully expect Matt Ryan to keep the Falcons within just enough of a range for the Saints to continue to pile it on. Also, it’s worth noting the Falcons have been effective versus opposing running backs all season and Alvin Kamara is fresh off an ankle injury, so his usage should see a small dip.
Golden Tate (DK-$5,900)
Tate is locked in as the number one receiving option in an offense that will be missing both Sterling Shephard and Evan Engram. Tate doesn’t have a line in this game, which is odd when you consider that’s usually just due to an injury issue with either that player or his quarterback. Since Week 6, Tate has logged at least six catches each week and had at least 80 yards in all but one week. With few targets to take away from Tate, he should remain a very safe option this week in a dream matchup against the Jets.
Zach Pascal (DK-$5,300)
I mentioned earlier Zach Paschal is one of the few available receiving options for the Colts this week, due to injuries. His line this week is only 57 yards, but that doesn’t really add up for the yardage totals we should be expecting from Jacoby Brissett. With Jack Doyle and, I don’t know, Rodgers or Hines being the other three top options, it’s very feasible Pascal could end up being the top target on the week in a very friendly matchup. Last week, Jamison Crowder secured 7 receptions in just the first half against the Dolphins, so I am expecting a solid day from Zach Pascal this week.
Travis Kelce (DK-$6,400) 13.2
Kelce ended with a decent 13 points last week in a decent matchup against the Vikings. With the likelihood of Pat Mahomes returning this week, I expect he will find his favorite target early and often. Kelce has no line this week but the Titans are very average against opposing tight ends, so there’s a lot of room for optimism this week. His DraftKings price is reasonable, all things considered.
Austin Hooper (DK-$5,500) 7.2
Austin Hooper has been the top fantasy tight end all season. No one really expected his performance would happen like it has, especially given Matt Ryan’s preference for targeting wide receivers. Hooper has a high line this week of 76 yards, so he should be a great value for the price at tight end or even as a Flex option this week.
Mike Gesicki (DK-$3,100) 7.9
Gesicki is 6’6 and ran a 4.5 at the combine. He is a superior athlete for the position and showed last week why he’s been so heavily touted since the draft. Gesicki had 95 yards on just three receptions, but the loss of Preston Williams means there should be plenty more targets for Gesicki going forward. He’s so cheap right now on DraftKings and has a line of 45 yards this week. It’s not a very high line, but for the price, it’s hard to find anyone with as much upside as Gesicki this week.
Colts D (DK-$3,500)
The Colts are playing the Dolphins this week. I am not going to dwell too much on the Dolphins offensive performance from a week ago because it was the Jets, so I think in a week of difficult defensive options out there, the Colts have a pretty good chance to finish with a solid performance.
Giants D (DK-$2,800)
The Giants have had some decent defensive production this season. Though it’s not likely they feast against the Jets, there’s a lot of reasons to believe the Jets could be in for a rough day. For one, the Jets struggled to protect Sam Darnold last week against the Dolphins. Second, the Jets’ young quarterback hasn’t exactly done much lately to inspire fans. I’m expecting a few miscues and ineptitude from the Jets this week.
Browns D (DK-$2,500)
The Browns are three-point favorites at home against the Bills and Buffalo has surrendered a surprising amount of sacks this season. The Browns have a great pass rush and solid corners, so the ingredients are there for a big day if they can get pressure on Josh Allen early. Regardless, the Bills aren’t the type of team who can make you really regret picking a defense against them, since they’ve yet to break 30 points on the season.
Devante Parker (DK-$4,800)
Parker’s line is 70 yards this week, which is incredible considering his price on DraftKings is just $4,800. Last week, Parker had a nice week which included a touchdown. This week, there’s less competition for targets following the season-ending ACL injury of Preston Williams. The Colts are the 18th ranked team against opposing receivers and the Dolphins don’t have much of a run game to speak of. Ryan Fitzpatrick is also still the quarterback, so Parker should get quite a few targets in this game.
Jamison Crowder (DK-$5,000)
Last week, Jamison Crowder had 7 receptions in the first half against the Dolphins. This week, Crowder gets an equally bad defense in the Giants. Sure, Sam Darnold might not be the most reliable quarterback at this point, but his favorite target all season has been Crowder. Le’veon Bell also might not suit up in the contest, so there’s even more appeal to starting Darnold’s favorite target in a very appealing matchup on Sunday.
Jaylen Samuels (DK-$6,300)
Samuels is the third Flex option we used in last week’s contests. Like the previous two, Samuels had a big day in the air, amassing a whopping 13 receptions in a narrow victory over the Colts. Although he didn’t offer much on the ground, the receiving upside of Samuels is just too appealing for a format like DraftKings, where receptions count for a full point. His price is a bit high and it’s true that Trey Edmunds should get the bulk of carries, but Samuels’ receiving upside offers a very high ceiling for the price.
Damien Williams (DK-$4,900)
Damien Williams misled us all last week with his 91-yard touchdown run. Not only was nobody actually expecting that, but very few of us felt he would exceed 8 or so touches in the game. Andy Reid clearly hasn’t been happy with Leshaun McCoy this season following his latest fumble and general lack of effectiveness, so there’s definitely going to be more opportunities this week for Damien Williams in this offense. His price is low and he’s more of a Hail Mary choice, but if you need a cheap add to fill out your roster, he’s a good lottery ticket.
Devin Singletary (DK-$5,000)
Singletary finally broke out last game. In limited opportunities in prior games, Singletary was able to showcase his quick burst ability. Last week, the Bills rode him to the tune of 20 carries, 3 receptions, 95 rushing yards, and a touchdown. It was a promising result for the talented, young back. Facing a bottom five rush defense this week, Singletary should again get plenty of opportunities to amass a respectable stat line when the Bills travel to Cleveland to face the Browns on Sunday.
Collin is a former Army Intelligence and Logistics officer who got a little too into Football analysis. Since leaving the Army, he’s practically the Jack Ryan of football analysts. But he spends most of his days with his wife and two daughters, so he is clearly a better father than Jack Ryan.
Follow Collin on Twitter @CollinHulbert