The Country Club in Brookline will host the US Open for the first time since 1988
Course Review (The Country Club – Brookline, MA)
The Country Club has no single continuous, trending characteristics, from a hole-to-hole perspective. Outside of the natural rock foundations throughout the course, the characteristics of each hole appear to be very unique. Some fairways are straight and wide, while others are very narrow for stretches. The greens do tend to be smaller here, and the presence of hidden bunkers make this course more advantageous for a solid caddy-golfer duo.
RBC Canadian Open Review & US Open Preview
Last week was our second wash in a row. We had one entry who was wiped from the board prior to start, and we had two solid cashes (Sam Burns Top 5 at +330 & Tony Finau Top 5 at +550). We had a few close misses elsewhere, but Tony Finau saved us, yet again. Sam Burns’ Top 5 finish was a little less unexpected (+330), but it was a nice compensating finish on the week. Of course, Rory would win the week after we pick him again. This can’t keep happening.
The US Open is back at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts for the first time since 1988. It’s a bit odd it’s taken this long, but the course is well suited for the scoring we’re likely to see this week. This week’s targets will be similar to last week. Approach, strong iron play, accuracy, and a decent putter will go a long way this week. We won’t see Tiger Woods this week, but we will see all our young favorites out there.
Metrics to track this week
Remember how we said a solid Caddy-Golfer duo this week is critical? This course is sneaky, challenging, and can really catch golfers off-guard. Small greens, a mix of narrow fairways, and a lot of blind shots make the metric focus similar to last week’s RBC Canadian Open. Last week was an ideal course for precision shooters. We could’ve really done ourselves a favor by leaning on the big guns, and that’s what we’re going to do this week.
We have 15 units on the card this week. It’s time to really go big on Top 5 finishes and Winners, so choose wisely and don’t just cover the board. Also, live betting is a good way to go here. You’ll typically get great value and you can use our notes as long-term guides for the latter days of the event.
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Recent Form
- Strokes Gained: Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Off the Tee – Two Players to finish in the Top 20
Tony Finau +140
Tony Finau must be our lucky horseshoe. Every time, we seem to just pick him the week he decides to play well. We avoided him early in the season and have now cashed with him in all three attempts. After an abysmal start to the season, Finau has turned a corner and roared into the Top 35 of the FedEx Cup standings (31st). With three Top 5 finishes in his last five events, Tony is now officially back…probably…hopefully.
Tony Finau is 31st in Scoring Average, 41st in Birdie Average, 28th in GIRP, 57th in Driving Distance, 16th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 15th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 25th in Strokes Gained: Total. Finau has been on fire lately, but it’s a lot to expect him to repeat last week’s performance. We are setting the bar lower this week for Tony, but still a reasonable return for such a relatively low ask.
Russell Henley +210
Russell Henley has taken some time away from golf since finishing 60th at the PGA Championship. Henley had not played particularly well in the months prior to the PGA Championship, but we hope the time away has resolved any struggles he’s had. Henley is one of our few colder plays this week. He’s an advanced stats play this week and only that. Even with all the recent struggles and time off, Henley is still 38th in the FedEx Cup.
Russell Henley is 8th in Scoring Average, 12th in Birdie Average, 43rd in Eagles (holes per), 13th in GIRP, 23rd in Driving Accuracy percentage, 2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 27th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 14th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 21st in Strokes Gained: Total. Sure, he’s been cold lately, but the advanced numbers imply he will perform above expectations this week. Golf isn’t always about current form.
Middle of the Fairway – Three Players to finish in the Top 10
Will Zalatoris +330
Picking Will Zalatoris to finish inside the Top 10 or Top 5 at a Major might just be our new favorite routine. Before the Golf world realized how automatic this guy was for high cashes at Majors, we were reaping the benefits early-on. Now, the value we’d normally get for him simply isn’t there. Still, Will has five Top 6 finishes in his last seven events (PGA Championship & The Masters were among them). In events lacking in the scoring department, Willy Z is elite.
Zalatoris is 69th in Sand Save Percentage, 23rd in Scoring Average, 21st in Birdie Average, 6th in GIRP, 15th in Driving Distance, 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 1st in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total. We feel strong about Zalatoris’ iron play this week and approach on a course with such small greens.
Sam Burns +330
Sam Burns saved us a week ago at the RBC Canadian Open. For those of you who followed your heart and picked Rory, good on you. While Rory regained his mojo last week, Sam Burns quietly cashed another Top 5. Burns is 2nd in the FedEx Cup standings, 25 years old, and has three wins on tour this season. Last week’s 4th place finish at the RBC Canadian Open should be a good indicator for this week, as the course strengths align closely with The Country Club.
Sam Burns is 7th in Scoring Average, 4th in Birdie Average, 5th in GIRP, 24th in Driving Distance, 64th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 57th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 18th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total. Burns is the constant in a season of heaters, droughts, and unexpected winners. Don’t continue to doubt this man.
Matthew Fitzpatrick +300
Matthew Fitzpatrick was our pick two weeks ago at The Memorial. Unfortunately, he failed to make the cut. Last week, Fitzpatrick finished 10th at the RBC Canadian Open. On the season, Fitzpatrick is 28th in the FedEx Cup standings and just 27 years old. To the vast majority on tour, they have little to no experience on this course. In 2013, Matt Fitzpatrick actually won the US Amateur Championship here. A lot of time has passed since then, but you can’t substitute the experience, regardless.
Matthew Fitzpatrick is 8th in Sand Save Percentage, 4th in Scoring Average, 40th in Driving Accuracy, 10th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 25th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 18th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 22nd in Strokes Gained: Putting, 5th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 2nd in Strokes Gained: Total. Picking winners isn’t an exact science, but we do believe last week’s course is a great comp for this week.
Short Putt – Six Players to finish in the Top 5 & to Win
Shane Lowry Top 5 +700 & +2500 to Win
Shane Lowry would be a much more famous Irish golfer if it weren’t for Rory and Seamus. Seamus Power certainly has the more Irish name and Rory has all the attention right now, but we should be focusing on Shane Lowry. Lowry is currently the 23rd ranked player in the FedEx Cup standings. He’s also got one Major under his belt (2019 Open Championship). He’s only played 13 events this season but has finished 13th or better in seven.
Shane Lowry is 6th in Sand Save percentage, 5th in Scoring Average, 44th in GIRP, 54th in Driving Accuracy, 79th in Driving Distance, 43rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 24th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 17th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total. Lowry is by no means a slam dunk, but he tied for 10th last week at a comparable course and the only reason he isn’t ranked higher than 23rd is the low event total on the season.
Max Homa Top 5 +900
Max Homa has finally emerged as a Top 10 player (currently 8th in the FedEx Cup). After years of showing promise, Max added two titles this season to his career total and now has four total. He won the Fortinet Championship last September and won the Wells Fargo Championship for the second time in his career. After struggling for some time in Majors, Homa finished 13th at the PGA Championship and followed that with 23rd at Charles Schwab and 5th at the Memorial.
Max Homa is 24th in Scoring Average, 20th in Birdie Average, 38th in Eagles (holes per), 51st in Driving Distance, 30th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 18th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 20th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 26th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 12th in Strokes Gained: Total. Max may not be ready to win, but a Top 5 finish here would be on par with his current rising trajectory. He has the approach numbers to be competitive this week.
Cameron Smith +450
A little Cam Smith each Major is a good thing. Cameron Smith is a lot like Will Zalatoris in that sense. Every time a Major rolls around, Cam Smith and Willy Z should be on your radar, because they simply know how to be in it when it really matters. Smith finished 3rd at this year’s Masters, and 13th at the PGA Championship. He’s a contender (typically) in big events, and this one is a big one.
Cam Smith is 3rd in Scoring Average, 1st in Birdie Average, 38th in GIRP, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 24th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 11th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 22nd in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total. Don’t feel shy to throw some down on the 5th ranked player in the FedEx Cup standings this week.
Jon Rahm Top 5 at +300 & +1300 to Win
Jon Rahm has been a level below what he was around this time last season. In golf terms, he’s still having an outstanding season (10th in the FedEx Cup), but last season was an off-the-charts epic, consistent season. Rahm has only won one event this season (Mexico Open at Vidanta), but it wasn’t exactly a challenging field.
Jon Rahm is 14th in Scoring Average, 16th in Birdie percentage, 1st in GIRP, 46th in Driving Accuracy, 5th in Driving Distance, 1st in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 22nd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 76th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 6th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total. Honestly, I don’t feel great about Rahm this week because of what he’s failed to show us this season, but if he does put together one great week, that FOMO is going to crush us.
Justin Thomas Top 5 at +300 & +1100 to Win
Justin Thomas has been strong all season, but he’s really turned it on as of late. JT is 3rd in the FedEx Cup and though this season is nothing quite like his 2016/2017 season, Thomas is on a real heater right now. He failed to close last week at the RBC Canadian Open, but he’s registered three Top 5 finishes in his last four events.
Justin Thomas is 3rd in Sand Save Percentage, 2nd in Scoring Average, 1st in Birdie Average, 19th in Eagles (holes per), 14th in GIRP, 13th in Driving Distance, 14th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 20th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 40th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total.
Xander Schauffele Top 5 at +400 & +2000 to Win
At this point, X may never give it to us. We’ve picked him eight times over the past two seasons and he’s cashed for us just once (never outright won, though). Following his unsettling wash-out at The Masters, Xander has been on a nice run. He won the Zurich Classic, finished 5th at AT&T Byron Nelson, 13th at the PGA Championship, and 18th at the Memorial. Xander has the chops, but the question now is, will he finally break through with his first Major victory?
Schauffele is 2nd in Sand Save percentage, 25th in Scoring Average, 7th in Birdie Average, 16th in GIRP, 58th in Driving Accuracy, 34th in Driving Distance, 38th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 62nd in Strokes Gained: Putting, 7th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 9th in Strokes Gained: Total. He has the tools, but Xander just needs to put it together this week.