The Memorial at Muirfield Village has been a staple for second-shot courses for the PGA since 1979. The course was designed by Jack Nicklaus and features a whopping 76 sand traps.
Widely accepted as a second-shot course, the Muirfield Village course has also been the proving ground for young players making their first breakthrough win. The tournament itself will host a 121-player field of the best on tour, and conditions this week should see a good mix of rainy conditions.
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On the season, we are sitting at +7.52 units with six full-unit players on this week’s card. Iron specialists (Approach to the Green and Tee-to-Green) are our targets this week for the lineup. Past success at Muirfield Village will also play a part for most of our card this week. Here’s this week’s criteria:
- Prior success at The Memorial
- Sand Saver Percentage
- Strokes-Gained Approach the Green
Good luck this week! With that, let’s dive into our top high-value betting lines for the Memorial at Muirfield Village, with betting lines from the DraftKings Online Sportsbook.
Teeing off – One Player to finish in the top 30
Kyle Stanley +250
Kyle Stanley is the epitome of a course-friendly pick. He’s that guy who seems to pop up in the Top-10 of this tournament every other year.
Stanley has finished Top-6 in three of seven attempts in this tournament. If you’re wondering why not just take him as a Top-10 finish, the answer is that I’m not that brave with this pick. The odds are already favorable for a big cushion with a T-30, so why get greedy?
Stanley has finished inside the Top-30 in four of his last six tournaments, so the form is aligning well for a strong run this week at Muirfield Village. Stanley is 45th in Strokes-Gained Tee-to-Green, 32nd in Strokes-Gained Approach the Green, and 15th in GIRP. I like for Stanley to again be the shocker no one sees finishing high this week.
Middle of the Fairway – One Player to finish in the top 20
Doug Ghim +250
Though Ghim has no history here at Muirfield, the 25-year-old is coming into the Memorial with justified hype. Last week, Ghim finished 14th at the Charles Schwab Challenge and 11th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans just a few weeks prior.
His metrics align well with the criteria for a player who should have success here. Ghim is 11th in Strokes-Gained Approach the Green, 19th in Strokes-Gained Tee-to-Green, and 16th in GIRP. Ghim’s odds this tournament are also curiously strong for a player with no tournament history here, which is always a pretty good indicator of success.
Edge of the Green – One player to finish in the top 10
Hideki Matsuyama +225
Matsuyama finished 23rd and 39th following his victory at The Masters. He’s not exactly on a heater lately, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a good outside pick this week. Hideki isn’t a streaky player, so his recent lackluster performances shouldn’t turn anyone off.
Matsuyama has finished 6th or better in three of seven Memorial tournaments. He’s finished 13th or better in four of seven. Matsuyama is 17th in Strokes-Gained Tee-to-Green and 19th in Strokes-Gained Approach the Green.
Though he’s pretty bad out of the sand (161st in Sand Save Percentage), his prior success here is what we’re banking on this week. After taking off last week to prepare for the Memorial, we feel good about Hideki’s chances this week.
Eagle Opportunity – Three players to finish in the top five
Justin Thomas +300
Justin Thomas is another guy who checks the box under “great at this venue but not great lately.” He finished in the Top-10 here in 2017 and 2018 but underperformed here the past two seasons.
Thomas is 1st in Birdie Average, 2nd in Scoring Average, 9th in Eagle Average, 45th in Sand Save Percentage, 2nd in Strokes-Gained Approach the Green, 6th in Strokes-Gained Tee-to-Green, and 6th in Strokes-Gained Total.
Justin may be a skeptical play and if his recent poor run scares you, I understand. However, we’ve seen more than a handful of players this season win or finish inside the Top-5 despite playing sub-par golf in the weeks preceding.
Tony Finau +500
Tony has finished in the top 13 in four of six attempts at the Memorial. Finau has finished Top-10 in two of his last five tournaments and Top-20 in four of his last five. He’s also the perfect candidate to fit the narrative of “young player to make his first breakthrough win” at the Memorial.
Finau is 5th in Scoring Average, 13th in Eagles (Holes Per), 13th in Strokes-Gained Approach the Green, 5th in Strokes-Gained Tee-to-Green, and 38th in Sand Save Percentage.
Whether or not you subscribe to the idea that the Memorial at Muirfield Village is a breakout ground for young players, Finau checks all the criteria boxes this week. Even if this isn’t THE week, it should still be a great week for him.
Viktor Hovland +350
Hovland is an interesting case for the Memorial. He’s played this Muirfield Village course twice (both in 2020). Hovland finished 3rd here at the Workday Charity Open but just 48th at last season’s Memorial, thanks to an atrocious weekend performance to close.
Though Hovland struggled at last year’s Memorial, the evidence he can succeed at this course only further reinforces the metrics nod Hovland has going into this week. Hovland is fresh off his worst finish since March, but had finished 3rd at Valspar and Wells Fargo prior to the 30th place finish at the PGA Championship.
Hovland is 1st in Scoring Average, 3rd in Birdie Average, and 5th in Strokes-Gained Total. Though the PGA Championship may have put a stink around Hovland for this week, the last couple of tournament winners — Phil and Kokrak — weren’t exactly on fire going into their respective tournaments.