US Open 2021 Betting Tips
Golf

The Best 2021 US Open Betting Picks Explained

The US Open is possibly the biggest major out there (depending on where you’re from). The rotating US Open host location has finally made its way back to San Diego. The last time it was played at Torrey Pines, Tiger Woods beat Rocco Mediate in that famous playoff (2008).

Torrey Pines is located just off the San Diego coastline in a pleasant, elevated and serene location. Established in 1957, the course has long, straight fairways — also very wide fairways — with a strong cluster of sand traps around most greens.

Wind can be a factor with the coastline and elevation of the course in relation to the coastline, but the greens are always a challenge at Torrey Pines. The weather forecast this week is sunny, the mid-70s with moderate wind, so no rain seems like the kind of forecast the players will be looking forward to after this last month.

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Last week, we had a bit of a collapse, again. For the third time in as many weeks, we had one player blow a cash on the final round. This time around, it was Harris English. Through five holes in the final round, Harris was at 12 under and in the lead. Needless to say, he collapsed down the back nine and finished outside the Top-10 and we missed another cash.

Ian Poulter also had a shot to cash but fell short in the end. Harris English’s collapse was the difference for us between a cash and a bust. Though we did cash with Danny Lee, we still took a loss on the week and now sit at -1.08 units on the season.

This week, we are looking to break out of our slump, as we’ve selected seven players this week for our card. Torrey Pines requires big drivers and great putters, so that’s where we’re focusing this week:

  1. Shots Gained: Off-The-Tee
  2. Prior success at another Torrey Pines
  3. Shots Gained: Putting
  4. Recent form

Good luck this week! With that, let’s take a look at the top US Open lines from the DraftKings Online Sportsbook

Middle of the Fairway – Two Players to finish in the top 20

Tony Finau -110

Tony Finau has been a player on the brink of greatness now for years. With no Majors on his resume, the narrative, “Finau can’t get it done when it matters” has been running way too long. Much of Finau’s struggles this season have come in the final round.

Since February 21st, Finau has yet to shoot better than 71 in a final round (0-6). Even with those numbers, Finau has five Top-20 finishes since February 21st. With the Top-20 as a realistic target finishing position, Finau also features a strong resume at Torrey Pines.

Tony has finished in the Top-20 in six of his seven tournaments at Torrey Pines. Finau fits the profile (mostly) to have a strong tournament this week as well. He’s 27th in Shots Gained: Off-The-Tee, 6th in Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 13th in Shots Gained: Total. If Finau has even a decent week on the green, he should be a lock for a Top-20 finish.

Viktor Hovland +110

Viktor Hovland is not exactly lighting the world on fire lately. Since finishing 3rd at Wells Fargo, Hovland finished 30th at the PGA Championship and 47th at the Memorial. Like many of the others near the top of the FedEx Cup standings, Hovland took last week off to prepare for Torrey Pines this week.

Hovland is 5th in Shots Gained: Off-The-Tee, 9th in Shots Gained: Total, and 3rd in Birdie Average. Hovland has played at Torrey Pines twice, failing to make the cut in 2019, but finishing 2nd this season at the Farmers Insurance Open. Even with the questions about his form, Hovland has shown an ability to play at a level as close to anyone on the tour.

Edge of the Green – Three players to finish in the top 10

Patrick Reed +200

Patrick Reed is the most recent winner at Torrey Pines, winning the Farmers Insurance Open by five strokes. Reed also finished 6th at the Farmers in 2020, so he’s very comfortable at Torrey Pines. He’s finished in the Top-10 in three of his last six tournaments and is among the best putters on tour this season.

With this being such a bomber course, there is reason to believe Reed might be behind the 8-ball off the tee, but he should be able to make up for it with the irons and short game. Reed is 44th in Shots Gained: Approach and 19th in Shots Gained: Around-The-Tee, so he has both the arsenal and the resume to finish inside the Top-10.

Bryson DeChambeau +163

I didn’t want to go this direction, but this course is just perfect for Bryson. For the record, this is my contrarian pick for the week. One dirty little secret about Torrey Pines is the winners have traditionally not been very accurate drivers. There are some exceptions in there but generally, bombers do very well in this tournament. B

Bryson hasn’t played this venue since 2018 and has not done well (cut both times). The thing is, oddsmakers have him as the second favorite to win. With only one Top-10 finish since the PLAYERS, Bryson is not playing his best golf.

So, why does he have the second-best odds? I’m jumping on this bet solely for this reason. When odds don’t make sense, it’s because there are variables you either don’t know exist or you aren’t looking in the right places.

For this tournament, the fairways appear to be much wider than usual. Bryson is 48th in Shots Gained: Putting, 1st in Shots Gained: Off-The-Tee, and 1st in Shots Gained: Total. That’s probably why we should add Bryson to our card this week.

Will Zalatoris +350

Will Zalatoris is a deeper play this week, but not if you are looking closely over the course of the season. No other players have been finishing as consistently in the Top-10 of Majors. In the last 12 months, Zalatoris has finished 6th at the US Open, 7th at Farmers (Torrey Pines), 2nd at the Masters, and 8th at the PGA Championship.

He’s been quiet as of late but is the type of guy you’d want to pick for a tournament like this. He checks the boxes on prior success here, as well as in Majors. On the metric side, Will is 41st in Shots Gained: Off-The-Tee, 3rd in Shots Gained: Approach, and 23rd in Shots Gained: Total.

The only question on the metrics side is his putting. With a strong finish at the Farmers, I trust he’ll figure it out, even if the greens will be playing very differently than they were months ago.

Eagle Opportunity – Two Players to finish in the top five

Xander Schauffele +335

Xander has been difficult to predict this season. We’ve picked Xander twice this year and neither time resulted in a cash. When you look at the rest of his performances, they’ve been great across the board. I love Xander’s prospects this week for every metric we’ve mentioned (36th in Shots Gained: Off-The-Tee, 8th in Shots Gained: Putting, and 22nd in Shots Gained: Approach).

At the Farmers, he finished 2nd, so he’s proved he can succeed here. As far as recent performance is concerned, he’s as good as anyone right now. Xander has finished in the Top-20 in five of his last six tournaments. With positive momentum and everything pointing in the right direction, expect X to give it to ya this week.

Jon Rahm +250

By now, everyone in the golf world knows how crazy the situation was two weeks ago at the Memorial. In case you didn’t know, Rahm was five or six strokes ahead of second-place before testing positive for Covid. I expect Rahm will return this week with revenge on his mind.

Before the incident at Memorial, Rahm finished 8th at the PGA Championship. He was hitting his stride, but even before that, he’s had a tremendous season, surviving the cut in 16 of 17 events this season. Rahm is 3rd in Shots Gained: Off-The-Tee, 12th in Shots Gained: Approach, and 2nd in Shots Gained: Total. Even though Rahm isn’t the best putter in the game or even close, he has finished Top-10 in four of five events here.

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