2021 palmetto championship at congaree
Golf

Our Betting Guide To The 2021 PGA Palmetto Championship At Congaree

The Congaree Golf Club course is just three years old. Designed by Tom Fazio in 2017, it’s designed with the Australian Sandbelt in mind and features some extremely long holes. The course is located around 45 minutes west of Charleston, South Carolina and is over 7,800 yards in total length, making it one of the longest courses on the PGA Tour.

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Following last week’s second whiff of the season, we are at +1.52 units with six full-unit players on this week’s card. Good drivers and those with success at Shadow Creek are our targets this week for the lineup. Expect fast and firm greens and plenty of Drivers in action on the lengthy, sand-filled course:

  1. Driving (overall)
  2. Prior success at another Tom Fazio course, Shadow Creek
  3. Sand Saver Percentage
  4. Shots Gained: Putting
  5. Recent form

Good luck this week and with that, let’s take a look at our top picks from lines from the DraftKings Online Sportsbook.

Cart Rental – One player to finish in the top 40

Mark Hubbard +130

Mark Hubbard is a really deep play this week. Alas, this is a Top-40 pick. Mark Hubbard’s best finish in a tournament this year was 17th. Here’s the catch: It was at the other Tom Fazio course, Shadow Creek.

For a guy who gets cut in half his tournaments this season, Hubbard has made the cut in each of his last three tournaments. Though his best finish in those three is 34th, you have to like the direction he’s heading. With no golfer having any professional experience at Congaree, Shadow Creek is the closest we will get to drawing a fair comparison.

There should be plenty of similarities on reads for Hubbard to get off to a good start, especially compared to much of the other field who struggled at Shadow Creek. Given the odds, I like Hubbard here, even if his overall performance and ranking doesn’t make the choice very appealing. At least Hubbard’s 43th ranked driving accuracy should be helpful on such a long course.

Teeing off – One Player to finish in the top 30

Danny Lee +240

Danny Lee is another of the lesser-known players on the board this week. He’s a 30-year-old from New Zealand who specializes in driving distance (70th) and Sand Save Percentage (31st).

Lee’s barely inside the Top-180 in the FedEx Cup standings this season, but his limited success has come in the form of a Top-25 finish at Shadow Creek. With such a small sample of players who have succeeded on the other Tom Fazio-designed course, it’s hard to say who should have a good tournament this week.

However, Lee is one of the few who drives the ball well, carries a good sand save percentage, and has a strong finish at Shadow Creek. Let’s roll the dice this week with his favorable odds.

Middle of the Fairway – One Player to finish in the top 20

Alexander Noren +110

Noren checks a lot of boxes for us this week. For one, he is very consistent. Consistency shows a player’s ability to adapt to the course, whether they’ve played there much or not. Noren has made the cut in 15 of 19 events this season but finished no better than 12th in any tournament (Genesis Invitational).

That’s why we are going for the Top-20 finish with Noren, primarily. Noren is 82nd in Driving Distance and 63rd in Sand Save Percentage. Considering the field, those are solid numbers. It also helps Noren is 45th in Shots Gained: Putting. Noren has made the cut in each of his last seven tournaments, finishing inside the Top-25 in five of the last seven.

Edge of the Green – Two players to finish in the top 10

Harris English +275

Harris English is in the Top-100 in Driving Distance (296.5 yards) and 51st in Driving Accuracy. His putting game is also very strong (36th in Shots Gained: Putting).

Harris English is currently 26th in the FedEx Cup standings, but running fairly well as of late, surviving the cut in seven of his last eight tournaments. Harris finished 10th at Shadow Creek, which should translate well for Congaree.

The one concern I have is his Sand Save Percentage (118th). Though one major redeeming stat is his Birdie Average (10th), so Harris should be able to gain ground in this tournament, assuming he can steer clear of the sand.

Ian Poulter +275

Poulter is curiously high on the odds to have success at Congaree. It probably has a lot to do with how he finished at Shadow Creek (3rd) in the CJ Cup in October of 2020. His odds also reflect the strengths we listed as being a premium on this course. Poulter is 7th in Shots Gained: Putting, 48th in Driving Accuracy, and 29th in Sand Save Percentage.

We’ve mentioned two explanations for why Poulter’s odds are so high, but perhaps the most important reason may be his current form. Poulter is fresh off a 3rd place finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

He’s made the cut in six of his last seven tournaments. At 45, Poulter may seem like too much of a longshot to win, but Phil’s victory at the PGA Championship should inject us with the courage we need to go with Poulter as a Top-10 pick this week.

Eagle Opportunity – One Player to finish in the top five

Brooks Koepka +225

Before we talk about our pick this week, we should talk about why we are passing on DJ this week. I’m not sold on Dustin Johnson this week because, frankly, he’s been in bad form lately.

DJ has been cut in two of his last four tournaments and only finished better than 48th once (13th at RBC Heritage). I like Brooks Koepka this week for all the reasons I like most of these other picks, but I like him much more when you take into account his improving health (still recovering from the knee injury).

That improvement over the last few tournaments. Following cuts at The Masters and the AT&T Byron Nelson, Brooks finished 2nd at the PGA Championship. It’s been a few weeks now since the PGA Championship, so Brooks should be even more healthy now.

Brooks is 17th in Driving Distance, 2nd in Sand Save Percentage, and 28th in Shots Gained: Putting. I like Brooks this week to finish among the top.

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