College

College Football Week 7 Picks

College Football: Week 6 was a wash. We went 2-2 on the week and now stand 17-11 on the season. Oklahoma got off to a sluggish start but came through in the clutch, overcoming an 18-point deficit to defeat Texas in the Red River Shootout. TCU dominated a little more than we expected; rushing for 394 yards at 8.4 YPC.

We missed on BYU and Oregon State, but our luck was bound to run out at some point with BYU. Oregon State, on the other hand, grabbed a 10-3 halftime lead against Washington State, but were outscored 28-14 in the second half.

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A Look Ahead to Week 7

Week 7 has a few big games, but less when compared to the last few weeks. Even though this week might lack the headline matchups, the college football gods typically give us some surprises each week.

#1 Georgia faces #11 Kentucky between the hedges. #12 Oklahoma State travels to #25 Texas to face the Longhorns in Austin. Aside from these two games, there aren’t any other ranked matchups. However, there are a number of games on the slate which should keep us more than entertained.

#13 Ole Miss will travel to Tennessee (2.5 point spread) to face the Vols. Purdue will travel to Iowa City to face the #2 Hawkeyes, and TCU will visit Norman to face #4 Oklahoma.

This week, we’ll be going with three remote games and one national game (Florida vs LSU).

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

 

Troy -7.5 at Texas State

Troy has had a challenging schedule as of late. Last week ended with a late field goal over Georgia Southern, while two weeks prior was a loss against South Carolina. Troy is a defense-first team. They have not allowed more than 29 points in any game this season. Even though Texas State has shown stretches of offensive potential, they’ve yet to face a defense of this caliber.

Texas State got off to a decent start this season, losing only by nine to Baylor. They’re two spots below Troy in offensive yardage (105th in FBS). Unfortunately, the Bobcats have a substantially worse defense (91st in FBS, while Troy is 7th).

Texas State has been in a bit of a tailspin lately, winners in just one of their last three and averaging 44 points surrendered (per game) over that stretch. That’s going to be a problem this week against a Troy offense on the prowl for a confidence-boosting performance.

As much as I’d like to sit here and tell you there’s some key matchup in this game, there really isn’t. Troy’s defense is amazing all-around. There simply isn’t much Texas State will be able to do to keep pace with Troy on offense. Expect this game to be relatively low-scoring, with the offense coming much easier for the Trojans.

Troy 30 Texas State 13

 

Toledo -5 at Central Michigan

Toledo has been good to us this season. This week, they travel to Central Michigan to face the Chippewas. Toledo has the 26th best defense in the country from a yardage perspective (313 YPG). CMU surrenders 396 YPG, but the real rub here is the turnover liability of CMU.

The Chippewas are a big play team, but one who does tend to take a lot of risks through the air. CMU has a ridiculous 4.83% turnover-worthy play rate. Conversely, Toledo sits at just 2.67%. On the year, the Rockets have only thrown one interception all year. CMU has six on the year but only two from Daniel Richardson (the current starter).

Like the game prior, this one comes down to defense. Toledo is much stronger on the defensive end, and plays at a lower risk on offense. This may be a simple take, but the simple takes have been working out well for us thus far.

Toledo is particularly strong against the pass, and that’s exactly what CMU leans on. I like Toledo to give CMU a rough time offensively on Saturday.

Toledo 27 CMU 14

 

Army +14 at Wisconsin

Army runs a modified triple option offense. Following years of being stomped mercilessly by Navy, Army adopted their offense and subsequently took over as the big power among the service academies.

Wisconsin has had a disappointing start to their season so far. After losing the opener to Penn State, Wisconsin beat EMU and Illinois, but were crushed by Notre Dame and Michigan. Now, Wisconsin faces an opponent they are likely overlooking.

In their last game, Army lost to Ball State, so they’re likely taking this week’s opponent much more seriously. Army’s ball control and efficiency on the ground should be a major problem for the Badgers, even with their top-ranked rush defense. Even the best run defenses tend to struggle against the triple option.

Wisconsin’s lack of proficiency in the passing game and Army’s strength as a rush defense (3rd in FBS) should keep this game much closer than most are expecting.

Wisconsin 17  Army 14

 

#20 Florida -12 at LSU

Florida is flat-out a better football team than LSU. This season, LSU has been the worst team in the SEC West. They’re 3-3 on the year, with only one notable win (Mississippi State). Honestly, MSU isn’t really notable, so who cares? LSU lost to an average Auburn team and were stomped by Kentucky, 42-21.

Florida almost knocked-off Alabama earlier in the season. Since then, they beat a good Tennessee team, lost a close one to Kentucky, and shut-out Vanderbilt. Florida presents a lot of challenges for their opponents. The dual threat nature of Emory Jones should make for a difficult task to the decimated LSU defense.

On the other side, LSU has been solid throwing the ball this season, but Florida is only allowing 208 passing yards per game. Even though LSU is having a down year, it’s still difficult to play in Death Valley. Regardless, LSU is completely overmatched in this game. Expect Florida to cruise to a comfortable victory.

Florida 38 LSU 17

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