U.S. poker media has submitted a grim forecast for licensed, cross-state, U.S. online peer-to-peer shared liquidity markets — informing partypoker shot-caller Rob Yong that 80% coverage is NOT happening in the next five years… and perhaps not even in the next two decades.
U.S. poker media analysts are warning that the United States “shared liquidity” online market that allows players from New Jersey, Nevada, and Delaware to compete against one another in real money games is NOT expanding to forty states anytime soon.
The question is being posed this week by partypoker partner and Dusk Till Dawn Casino (Nottingham) proprietor Rob Yong — who polled his Twitter followers asking how much time they believe will pass before the regulated U.S. online poker market is approved in 80% of all American states.
Within minutes of the poll’s creation, Borgata Poker representative and veteran online player Mike Gagliano suggested that Yong narrow his query to poker industry representatives who specifically cover the U.S. online market.
Rather than polling your Twitter followers, who likely know very little about the subject, it's better to ask those that work in the industry: @pokerprojones @OPReport @DustinGouker @SteveRuddock @Lance_Bradley @AdamLoebSmall
— Gags30 (@Gags30poker) September 11, 2019
U.S. Poker Media Contributors Inform: Online Shared Liquidity
U.S. poker media contributors have responded in kind — informing the UK-based online poker room executive that achieving eighty percent* coverage for licensed, cross-state, “shared liquidity” U.S. online peer-to-peer games within any reasonable time frame is a near-hopeless task.
* Eighty percent of U.S. States = 40 — Currently Compacted: 3
* Eighty percent of U.S. 21-and-over licensed commercial poker market = ~150 million
Currently Compacted: ~10 million
Steve Ruddock – BettingUSA
80% of states or 80% of population are both closer to never than 5 years. 20 years maybe. A more interesting question would be, "will an interstate online poker network exist that has access to 50 or 100 million US residents." The first number *could happen in 5 years.
— Steve Ruddock (@SteveRuddock) September 12, 2019
Just for context, it takes a year or two to pass a bill and another year or two for regulations to be crafted, licensing, and, testing. Any state that is starting from square 1 in January is at least two years (and likely more) from dealing a hand of poker.
— Steve Ruddock (@SteveRuddock) September 12, 2019
Jessica Welman – Catena Media
Not necessarily but when there is no tax benefit people are much less likely to turn a blind eye to the "gambling is bad" argument.
Mississippi has sports betting. Tennessee legalized it despite having no casinos. Sports betting has a much better return, much easier sell.
— Jessica Welman (@jesswelman) September 12, 2019
Dustin Gouker – OnlinePokerReport
There is about a zero percent chance Congress will pass an online poker bill.
— Dustin Gouker (@DustinGouker) September 12, 2019
Lance Bradley – PocketFives
The owner of a worldwide casino group feels very, very differently.
— Lance Bradley (@Lance_Bradley) September 12, 2019
Online gambling. All forms.
— Lance Bradley (@Lance_Bradley) September 12, 2019
John Mehaffey – Vegas Advantage
The answer is never. Only 80 percent of live poker today. Online poker is a tough sell, especially because it's been a near flop in the 3 states that have it and little rev has been generated, especially compared to projections. DE only does like $25k/month in rake.
— John Mehaffey (@John_Mehaffey) September 12, 2019
Chris Grove – Eilers & Krejcik
I don’t want to say never but the horizon is definitely more than 10 years.
There is not really any state of material population that is seriously considering online poker.
— Chris Grove (@OPReport) September 14, 2019
Nick Jones – Pokerfuse
I regretfully played a few MTTs there in summer 2018 but haven’t played there since and don’t plan to going forward
— Brian Hastings (@brianchastings) September 12, 2019
Jon Sofen – CardsChat
Never isn’t the right answer but we will not see more than 10-12 states legalize online poker in any of our lifetimes.
— Jon Sofen (@writing4poker) September 12, 2019
Jeff Platt – PokerGO Break Desk Host
Ahhh interesting – does he have any chance ?
— Rob Yong (@rob_yong_) September 11, 2019
But think 80%+ with shared liquidity is still very far off
— Jeff Platt (@jeffplatt) September 12, 2019
U.S. Poker Players Inform: Online Shared Liquidity
Poker players who are familiar with the regulated U.S. online poker market have also responded.
Christian Harder – 2017 PokerStars Championship Bahamas Main Event Winner
I think about 25% of states are likely very very far away because of ideological reasons. I could see maybe 50% of states in 5 years. More than would be pretty surprising.
— Christian Harder (@realcharder30) September 11, 2019
Brian Hastings – 4-Time WSOP Bracelet Winner
Zero chance in <5 years. All of the states in which Evangelicals weild immense political power (maybe 15-20 of them?) are drawing dead to do it anytime soon. And Sheldon is still around to keep funding politicians who will oppose any online gambling legislation
— Brian Hastings (@brianchastings) September 12, 2019
Kevin Iacofano – 2018 WSOP Circuit Las Vegas Ring Winner
Damn that would be awful …Never
— Rob Yong (@rob_yong_) September 11, 2019
Jonathan Little – Poker Player/Commentator/Coach/Author
I agree, eventually.
— Jonathan Little (@JonathanLittle) September 12, 2019
Part Time Poker Articles – U.S. Online Poker Lobbyist Woes
Part Time Poker has published a number of articles related to U.S. online poker lobbying difficulties.
Full Recap: Poker Players Alliance Fund-Raising Failure (Mar 15, 2018)
Preliminary New York Online Poker Legislation Analysis (Apr 10, 2018)
Preliminary Louisiana Online Poker Legislation Analysis (Mar 5, 2018)
Statewide Gambling Expansions and Voter Referendum Mandates (May 3, 2018)
Arkansas Casino Petition Highlights Rising Lobbyist Costs (Jul 13, 2018)
Florida Amendment 3 Highlights Casino Lobbying Challenges (Nov 6, 2018)
Former PPA President Sounds Alarm for Regulated U.S. Online Poker (Jan 20/Mar 5, 2019)
NAGRA Webinar Timestamps: New USDOJ Wire Act Opinion (Mar 3, 2019)
Parx Mini Casino Public Input Hearing Timestamps (Mar 25, 2019)
Regulated U.S. Online Poker Faces Steep Challenges (Apr 12, 2019)
Payment Processing Delays Reported on Licensed WSOP Poker Site (Jul 30, 2019)
USDOJ to Appeal District Court Ruling on Wire Act (Aug 17, 2019)
U.S. Poker Media Feedback: Online Shared Liquidity (Conclusion)
The overwhelmingly negative feedback provided by U.S. poker industry representatives concerning the medium-term prospects of regulated online peer-to-peer “shared liquidity” services being authorized within 80% of all statewide markets is in-line with numerous observations and supporting evidence that have been published here at Part Time Poker.
This author encourages our readers to vote and participate in the Twitter thread created by Rob Yong, and to take a “watch your wallet” approach to any individual who projects massive growth for licensed, cross-state U.S. online poker games between now and the 2025 calendar year.
On a final note, Rob Yong may want to consult with Team partypoker member Isaac Haxton to get the iconic poker personality’s take on how the world’s largest poker site — PokerStars — played a meaningful role in blocking regulated California online poker back in 2016.
Rational business decision, but makes recent "advocacy" by their employees/pros even more gag inducing than corporate advocacy usually is.
— Isaac Haxton (@ikepoker) August 18, 2016
.@RichMuny Let's take a poll!
Which would you prefer?— Isaac Haxton (@ikepoker) August 19, 2016
SOCIAL MEDIA CONSIDERATION (TWITTER) @rob_yong_, @partypoker
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER: @dhubermex, @WoernlePoker, @gonzo787, @benefactumgames, @PartTimePoker
